Future of Strategy 2022: vital skills and worrying shortages

WARC’s Future of Strategy survey finds that, in a tumultuous world, strategists continue to gain influence, but talent shortages are a major concern for the profession. Here’s what you need to know.

Why it matters

From the COVID crisis through to today’s economic environment, uncertainty necessitates strategists.

Strategists’ generalist abilities stand out, as the report describes clients in need of professionals that can simplify, integrate, think big-picture, and address issues outside traditional marketing and move into new areas like responses to climate change. 

You can read the full report here.

Method

These findings are based on the tenth edition of the annual study, taking in responses from over 700 client- and agency-side strategists, as well as 12 in-depth interviews with strategy leaders.

The report examines “how strategy careers are evolving, the biggest topics impacting the function and what strategists need to do to meet high client expectations in an uncertain world”, explains Anna Hamill, Senior Editor - Brands, WARC.

Five ideas you need to know

1. Tumult keeps strategists in demand. Though the pandemic might have ended, the upheaval has not. Respondents feel optimistic about the value and influence they can bring both to their clients and agencies.
   
   
2. Agencies struggle in talent war against deep-pocketed competitors. Continuing a years-long trend, but with additional urgency, 46% of strategists are concerned about being able to find the right talent at a time when a majority (57%) report that they plan to hire to fill current gaps. Just 30% expect their next strategy role to be in an agency.
   
   
3. Thinking beyond marketing and about the business’s performance. Versus last year, 49% of strategists report working on upstream business problems with their clients as the discipline’s biggest opportunity – a ten percentage point increase on 2021’s results. But other questions are being asked too: a significant majority of strategists expect sustainability (82%) and DEI considerations (70%) to be more visible in client marketing strategies and briefs.
   
   
4. Strategists brace for cost-of-living crisis. Eighty-six percent of respondents anticipate the cost-of-living crisis will have a significant or transformative impact in the next year and 69% believe that it will be at the centre of marketing communications. However, the extent of concern depends on the region. In North America – which has a more optimistic mid-term economic outlook than Europe – just 50% of respondents believe that cost-of-living concerns will be more visible in client briefs, compared to 79% in Europe and 69% in APAC.
   
   
5. Diversity, equity, and inclusion needs work. Both at a client and at an agency level, challenges remain in this area with agencies continuing to lack internal diversity while clients struggle to deliver DEI agendas.
   

Go further

Expert commentary from leading strategists, who include Joyce Ling of Wunderman Thompson China, Aki Spicer of Leo Burnett Chicago, Anush Prabhu of MediaCom, James Honda-Pinder of We Are Social, Mehak Jaini of 22feet Tribal Worldwide, Eunice Tan of The Secret Little Agency and Nick Myers of OLIVER Agency, is available to read here.

The full Future of Strategy 2022 report which includes quantitative and qualitative data analysis and advice, is available to WARC subscribers.

A Future of Strategy podcast will be released mid-October.

Report: CTV growth sees it achieve serious reach as spend grows

With some of the biggest advertising stories this year involving major streamers introducing advertising, a new report puts numbers behind that optimism.

Why it matters

Connected TV is going mainstream – and this report indicates a much larger reach than we last reported.

Pixalate’s Ad Supply Chain Trends Report finds 94% US household’s reachable by open programmatic CTV ads this year, up eight percentage points on 2021 and increasing integration of open buying across apps collectively feel like a turning point for the capabilities of high-reach, big screen TV advertising.

It is based on an internal analysis of more than 300m CTV devices and reports on the period Jan 2019-June 2022. Ad spend datasets are based mainly on buy-side open auction traffic.

Details

• Global open programmatic CTV ad spend is up 31% year-on-year (according to estimates).
• More CTV apps (+20% YOY) now support open programmatic ads, though most of the growth took place between 2020-21.
• While US CTV adspend was ahead of the global total at 32%, Europe has been catching up fast, with a 816% increase in programmatic CTV ad spend YOY. Latam was also a major growth market with 318% YOY.
• APAC reveals a more mature picture, with 2020’s growth in CTV spend so high that spend appears to be falling.

Go deeper

It’s well known that CTV in big but fragmented markets like those of Europe are very complicated, so while adoption across the world is very high, some places move faster than others.

Roku in the US, for instance, emerges as the undisputed market leader with 44% of programmatic spend, having capitalised on its first-mover advantage and expanding into advanced new retail opportunities and new ad techniques.

Moreover, big names from Netflix to Disney+ to Amazon are getting increasingly involved, especially with sports growing in importance to these services bringing in viewers. Coverage is likely to continue growing.

Read WARC’s Guide to Connected TV here

Sourced from Pixalate, WARC. Image: Pixalate

What it means when search becomes more visual

At Google’s search event this week revealed several ways in which its core search product would be adapting to the growing trend that young internet users are searching more visually-led platforms; the changes speak to a deeper philosophical shift that could have a big change on the way the massive business of search advertising operates.

Why it matters

In 2021, Google made $149 billion in advertising revenues on its core business of which search plays a huge part – not only to Google’s business, but by search accounting for 34% of the world’s ad spend in 2020. Big changes to a business this big are worth paying attention to.

What’s happened

Its Search On event revealed a suite of new ways in which to search and in which to shop on Google – both will be of huge interest to the marketing discipline. While we won’t rehash them all here, they uncover two trends:

• Searching by vibe: visual search and voice note search are incoming.
• Search isn’t about finding one right answer but a method of discovery.

Where it’s going

This second point is articulated neatly in a good piece on tech site The Verge, in which it observes that search has evolved into a “system for exploration, for discovery, for trying to learn things about which there are no obvious answers.”

While users are usually ahead of platforms in this regard – as evidenced by Google’s own admission that around 40% of young users go to TikTok or Instagram (when looking for a place for lunch) – it’s a significant shift.

This has fed a new feature, Exploration, which will be coming to iOS devices soon via Google’s dedicated app currently dedicated to travel and tourism topics, offering suggestions that help users explore. While nothing is set yet, this is likely to affect the ways in which search ad buyers reach their targets.

Looking to China, where the trend toward the visual is more developed, VC-turned-media company a16z explores some of the adaptations that businesses have made in order to become searchable on Douyin (TikTok in China).

Sourced from Google, WARC, The Verge, New York Times, a16z

Bain research adds evidence to B2B brand argument

New research published in the Harvard Business Review points to the importance of your brand being first to mind even in complex, long-lead B2B purchases as 90% of the time buyers will simply choose a brand they know prior to beginning the search process.

As a result, the article argues, brands tend to place way too much emphasis on channels aimed at converting demand rather than building it, adding to a growing body of evidence about the importance of brand-building (or creating future demand among potential buyers) to the B2B space.

Why it matters

Some brands continue to rely too heavily on short-term digital advertising that is often product-led and rationally aimed at in-market buyers.

This limits their growth potential. While some surveys suggest the importance of brand is growing among business-focussed brands, and academic researchers have established ways to model the kind of memory creation the Bain researchers identify, it is not yet mainstream thinking.

What’s going on

Based on a survey of 1,208 workers at US companies tasked with buying software, cloud hosting, hardware, telecommunications, logistics, marketing, or industrial equipment, and an additional 10 in-depth interviews to flesh out the themes.

• 90% of buyers ultimately choose a vendor they had in mind before they began researching the purchase.
• Word of mouth is very important, with recommendations from colleagues a vital aspect of the purchase decision. This implies that memory creation beyond the individual buyer.
• Previous experience with a vendor is critical, and helps brands to be bought even as buyers move jobs.
• Digital experiences and demonstration experiences are both often underdone. Discoverability and online presence means that digital experience must live beyond the company website.

Understand buying tiers

B2B buying is usually done by committee, with personal motivations often making decisions more about not getting the task wrong rather than buying the very best.

Bain identifies three tiers:

• Ultimate approvers
• Core committee (researchers – typically the most important tier)
• Internal influencers (often the users).

Sourced from the Harvard Business Review

‘Zero Covid’ dampens Chinese commerce

Ongoing efforts to keep coronavirus infections at an absolute minimum in China through lockdowns are having a widespread impact on commerce in the country.

Why it matters

Viewed through the prism of the markets, as Bloomberg does here, the return of pent-up demand seen in other economies – and, indeed, in China back in the Spring of 2020 - hasn’t materialised two years on.

With restrictions tightening ahead of Golden Week, the dampening looks to be creeping into a wider slowing of the economy. However, China’s economy remains vast, and with its middle class continuing to grow there remains great potential both for local and international brands.

What’s going on

• Effectively, people are now cutting back spending not only because of the coronavirus as wider macro issues like youth unemployment bite.
• Retail sales in July, for instance, were down versus the same period last year.
• Elsewhere, it appears investors and analysts have taken a grim view of central government encouragement of thriftiness, part of a long-running anti-graft effort under President Xi Jingping.
• Between lockdowns and shifts in emphasis, luxury brands that had once done very well in China have struggled.

Sourced from Bloomberg

Lego aims for market share gains

Lego, the world’s largest toy firm, appears confident that the factors driving its market share growth are sustainable despite a toughening economic environment.

Why it matters

While profits have not grown in line with revenues, the beauty of the company’s structure means that it can sustain investment in difficult times – not only in its marketing activity but in new product lines and expansions into new service layers and new, older age ranges (a source of all important price elasticity).

But, critically, most of its H1 revenue growth has come from demand rather than price increases (these have come in later in the year, and on products aimed at older builders), and despite the closure of 81 Russian outlets.

By the numbers

The privately-owned Danish toymaker announced a 17% increase in revenues for the first half of the year (to $3.5 billion) and believes the underpinnings of that growth will continue even as surging costs have caused profits to dip slightly.

Optimism amid gloom

Speaking to the Financial Times, CEO Niels Christiansen noted his company’s strong performance amid difficult macro issues.

“We’ve had three or four unbelievable years where we’ve basically doubled the company. I’m not deaf to some people talking about a more difficult economic environment,” he told the newspaper.

But we also believe that the things underpinning us taking more market share are sustainable.”

It is also worth pointing out that the company is investing heavily in new areas, especially in digital services.

The company has also expanded its footprint internationally, with 66 new store openings, mostly in China.

Sourced from the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, WARC

Netflix’s gaming drive chimes with rising cloud gaming interest

Netflix’s revenue diversification strategy continues apace as it bolsters its cloud gaming capability with the launch of a games studio in Helsinki, as it races to tap into a holy grail for the sector.

Why it matters

After advertising, which Netflix plans to launch in the very near future as the cost of its inventory have now emerged, gaming is a significant new frontier for the video streaming company at a time when interest in cloud gaming has grown by around 500% year-on-year, globally. In August it hinted it would explore such a direction through new hires.

Still, with gaming giants like Sony and Microsoft (which owns Xbox) seeking to evolve, and with expansions from Google and Apple yet to set the world alight, it’s not clear that Netflix will win out.

However, its suite of IP, rivalled only by Disney, perhaps, could be a critical element of the plan. The question will surround whether it’s computing power or great games that ensure success in the sector.

What’s going on

Earlier this week, the company announced that it would open up an internal games studio in the Finnish capital of Helsinki, having hired a veteran of mobile and online gaming firm Zygna – maker of Farmville. Apparently, the city is a hotspot of gaming talent.

It follows a handful of acquisitions in recent years as the company has built up a roster of acquired talent. This effort is the first time it’s building from scratch and will form a vital part of a development process that usually takes years to produce a single game.

Just this month, the company brought out its first mobile game, Oxenfree, following its acquisition of gaming studio Night School Studio a year ago, and the release of a suite of games on the mobile version of the streaming service.

 A special edition of an existing game, the version was a separate app for Netflix subscribers that features neither apps nor in-game purchases.

The business of gaming

• Games in all their forms are a vast business of which mobile – the area that Netflix is targeting – is a key driver.
• Mobile games are relatively well attuned to advertising, given that it has offered a relatively straightforward revenue model for young upstarts.
• But it’s very very difficult to do. Earlier this year, Google’s Stadia had to pivot its strategy away from making its own new games to operating as a cloud platform for publishers.
• Elsewhere, major console makers like PlayStation owner Sony are pivoting into the massive growth in mobile gaming.

Sourced from Netflix, Think with Google, WARC, TechCrunch

Australian retail sales grow on food and leisure

Retail spending in Australia remained strong through the month of August despite interest rate headwinds, reflecting ongoing consumer confidence in the country.

Why it matters

It appears that Australians are not yet tightening belts in response to rising inflation of an expected 7.75% this year. But some economists expect next year to be tougher as rate rises bite, with potential knock-on effects to the retail sector’s advertising spend.

Food-related products and department stores have done very well, suggesting the ongoing draw of leisure spending. Clothing and footwear, meanwhile, are slightly down.

 What’s going on

Retail spending rose 0.6% in August versus July – its eighth straight month of growth – reaching a record $34.8 billion.

The increase was spurred by “the combined increase in food related industries, with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services up,” Ben Dorber, head of retail statistics at ABS told Bloomberg.

While this was more than expected, it does reflect a slowing growth rate on July’s 1.3% month-on-month gains.

It comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised base interest rates to cope with rising inflation – they now stand at 2.35% - though economists expect a certain amount of lag time between rate rises and normal people feeling the effects.

Sourced from Bloomberg, WARC, Trading Economics

CMOs struggle to get to grips with data ethics

CMOs are keen to address consumer and regulatory concerns around data-driven marketing, but the complexity of the data and digital ecosystem is making it hard for them to identify the right practical measures to take.

That’s according to new research* from the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) which finds that the great majority of CMOs at multinational companies are prioritising an ethical approach to their use of data but half do not know what this means when it comes to the processes and practices they need to apply both internally and across their marketing supply chains.

Why it matters

WFA President and Mastercard Chief Marketing and Communications Officer Raja Rajamannar believes the digital ad market is “facing an inflection point with the scale of regulatory, consumer and market pressures” and says it’s down to CMOs to lead the way in ensuring brands can use data in a responsible, equitable and ethical manner. “If we don’t, we threaten the entire industry’s licence to operate longer term.” 

Key findings 

• 50% of CMOs are very concerned about the level of privacy compliance among their external partners and suppliers (e.g. publishers, ad tech, online platforms and data brokers).

• 83% of CMOs are very concerned about being associated with a service provider or supplier that is investigated for the unethical use of data.
• Only 16% of CMOs are very confident that their company’s use of AI and machine learning will not create harmful unintended consequences for their consumers such as bias, unfair discrimination or unfair exclusion.
• 85% of CMOs are considering using privacy-preserving alternatives to programmatic advertising in response to increased regulatory scrutiny.
• 33% of CMOs believe that their marketers are consciously avoiding using data in a way that exploits vulnerabilities (e.g. unfairly excludes certain audiences, fuels unhealthy consumption patterns or polarises opinions).
•  41% of CMOs say data ethics has become an integral part of their organisation’s culture.

Next steps 

The WFA believes that brands must go beyond existing rules and apply a moral lens to the complex web of data-related marketing practices in order to develop more responsible, inclusive and ethical data practices. Its new CMO Guide to Data Ethics in Practice is designed to help CMOs address these challenges and better understand their responsibilities around data and AI.

*The results are based on 12 responses provided by global CMOs who sit in the WFA’s CMO Forum, which represents brands spending over $120bn each year.

Sourced from WFA

How to market during tough times

As consumers in many markets endure the worst cost-of-living crunch in decades, the spotlight is on brands to adapt to changing behaviours and expectations while keeping business buoyant for the recovery; the WARC Guide to the consumer crunch: navigating inflation and the threat of recession shows how.

Why it matters

This is not a typical downturn. Sharp inflation and the threat of recession (or ‘stagflation’) make this period of instability particularly challenging for marketers, as rising prices amplify the effects of a downturn on consumer spend. The current economic environment poses challenges for brands as they navigate new pressures on pricing, portfolio management, innovation, advertising and more.

Key takeaways

• Marketers need to maintain investment in their brands as they seek to justify price increases and defend themselves from trading down or private-label rivals.
• Pricing can no longer be the ‘forgotten P’. Use data modelling and testing to understand price elasticity in your category, and use the other marketing ‘Ps’ to support any changes you need to make to price.
• Knowing if the brand has a greater degree of price ‘exposure’ vs. its competition is critical. Strong brands with more brand equity drive greater commercial growth and are less price elastic.
• Consider tiering or bundling strategies which can help reframe value to different audiences.
• Find innovative and creative ways to support consumers through this challenging time, which will help nurture consumer trust.

The WARC Guide to the consumer crunch presents the latest research, evidence and case studies to help marketers respond to this period of instability. The full report is available to WARC subscribers here, and a sample report is available to download here. An upcoming podcast will also discuss these issues.

Fintech fuels festive demand in India

After two pandemic-disrupted years, this year’s festival season in India promises to be a good one for e-commerce retailers especially, driven in part by pent-up demand, in part by the new flexibility offered by a fast-growing fintech sector.

What’s happening

Buy now pay later volumes were already up a reported 17% in the first half of the year and, now, as the festive season arrives, fintech brands are partnering with e-commerce players to enable more consumers to take advantage of the deals on offer. Digital finance company axio tells the Economic Times it has seen 50-60% increase in BNPL spending during the festival season, while Flexiloans.com expects the e-commerce to record $12bn in revenues. 

One fintech’s festive story

• Flexiloans.com reports demand from e-commerce vendors in over 500 cities.
• Lead inquiries have risen 300%; lending disbursals are expected to grow 3x.
• Where a normal festive season leads to perhaps 25% excess credit demand, founder Manish Lunia expects that to double to 50% this year.
• Just over half of new leads are coming from Tier 2-4 cities, he reports.

Key quote

“Customers opt for easy and affordable finance options like Pay Later to make aspirational purchases while exclusive campaigns run by large e-commerce companies and D2C brands provide additional impetus” – Sashank Rishyasringa, Co-founder and MD, axio.

Sourced from Economic Times

The devalued pound and what it means for advertising

Last week’s hastily arranged fiscal event hasn’t panned out the way its champions hoped as international financial markets lost confidence in the UK and investors shorted the £. But what does it all mean for advertising? 

What happened 

Just days ago, the UK’s latest Chancellor announced cuts to the top rate of tax income tax, increases in national insurance and corporation tax were cancelled, and a cap on banking bonuses was lifted at the same time as an enormously expensive energy price cap for households and businesses was put in place.

This was supposed to be good news

It’s easy to forget that the fiscal event was announced to make things better, and to provide a response to the energy price crisis that had threatened to hit people’s incomes so hard as to force a recession. But it’s the mix of heavy cuts (~£45bn) to government revenues and big increases in spending (over £100bn) to pay for the energy price fix at a time when borrowing is ludicrously expensive that has spooked the markets.

Two opposing directions

The response from the markets was disbelief and the sale of sterling. At one point the pound reached its lowest level since the UK’s currency became decimal in 1971. What’s more, investors have been selling off UK government debt; effectively, the country has become a pretty risky debtor to rely on.

 “Investors seem inclined to regard the UK Conservative Party as a doomsday cult” commented Paul Donovan, UBS GWM, as reported by Global’s Lewis Goodall.

A bigger worry may revolve around the interest rate rises that the Bank of England might have to make in order to correct what a budget of unfunded tax cuts will do to an already inflationary environment – the UK’s central bank has already said it would “not hesitate” to increase interest rates.

That tension cuts to the heart of the issue: as fiscal policy attempts to accelerate into growth, monetary policy must go the other way. This will hurt most people, make credit harder to get, and will very likely cause havoc in the housing market. If mortgage repayments spiral, it won’t just be low-income consumers switching to private label or value ranges.

Any stabilisation of the pound on Tuesday appeared to be predicated on interest rates going up and on deep cuts to public services in order to balance the books. Effectively, for businesses as much as consumers, financing is going to be a lot more difficult and a lot more expensive.

Costs will increase further

Immediately, this will hit British companies in the form of rising import costs, especially in those sectors highly exposed to the US – the Financial Times highlights aviation, with many operational costs such as fuel paid in dollars, and drinks manufacturers that import lots of hops from the US. But really, any and all imports have become more expensive. As will any media bought and sold in dollars (or most non-sterling currencies for that matter).

See examples and inspiration from brands around the world that have faced sharply devalued currencies.

A cheap shopping zone

Retail, meanwhile, sees a mixed bag. Overseas visitors will now enjoy VAT-free shopping, which alongside a weak pound, suggests that shops catering to international luxury shoppers are likely to do very well – as long as the costs of energy and imported goods don’t hit them too hard in the meantime.

There’s a similar possibility for the agency business – though this remains something of a fringe view – which is a strong exporter of both advertising and market research services, as it becomes more competitive (read, cheaper) to international buyers.

While that means some good news for vast multinational agencies capable of servicing international clients, it does little to help the smaller agencies catering to UK companies who are also feeling the ongoing strain on their costs and are watching their buyers tighten their belts.

Accelerating M&A

At a macro level, the weakening pound could set the scene for some discounted takeovers by rich US companies, with certain hedge fund managers noting in comments to the Guardian that UK firms – especially those with strong brands – had retained their value even as the Nasdaq slowed.

“We can expect to see a wave of bids from overseas buyers for UK businesses. Their profits obviously won’t be worth as much in dollars, so asset-backed situations and brands are most valuable,” Richard Bernstein, founder of Crystal Amber, an asset management firm, noted.

SPT

Why brands and agencies need a dedicated approach to marketing effectiveness

Having a marketing effectiveness roadmap increases effectiveness culture and helps create a better, balanced approach to value creation within brands and agencies – and more need to create one.

That’s according to the IPA’s 2022 Marketing Effectiveness Roadmap report, which finds that 26% of brand respondents and 37% of agency respondents claim that their brand or agency does not have an effectiveness roadmap. 

Why it matters

The report defines marketing effectiveness as: “The process of improving business performance from marketing activities, made easier and more impactful by people, technology, and a strong and clear focus.”

But for business performance to improve, more agencies need to start or reignite their effectiveness journey with an effectiveness roadmap and start building effectiveness roadmaps in partnership with each other.

The report suggests the industry needs to rally around one definition and one framework for understanding how to improve marketing effectiveness.

Findings 

• The biggest single increase in marketing effectiveness culture is when the effectiveness journey is started: for brands it increases (+88%), for agencies 33% (from a higher base).
• Having an effectiveness roadmap increases perceived marketing effectiveness culture by 37% for brands and 38% for agencies.

• When a roadmap is present, brands are 41% more likely to believe that their organisation balances the long and short term and 71% more likely to believe long-term brand effects are crucial.

• 26% of brand respondents and 37% of agency respondents claim that their brand or agency does not have an effectiveness roadmap.

What can agencies do

• There is an opportunity for agencies to create effectiveness roadmaps for and with each of their key clients.
• Agencies can put greater effort into helping the whole organisation better understand how an effectiveness approach increases effectiveness culture.

• They can help clients understand that the agency is a creator of value rather than a cost to brands.
• They can avoid effectiveness becoming siloed within planning, analytics or other departments.
• Agencies (and brands) need to address the effectiveness challenge posed by the lack of (or perceived lack of) data sharing from and with their clients, and also from and with other agencies that work for the same client.

Sourced from IPA