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Alphabet, Meta and Amazon to take half of $1 trillion ad market in 2025

The global ad market has largely weathered the impact of COVID-19, so far, and is on course to reach a value of US$1 trillion in 2025, with more than half of this money paid to just three companies – Alphabet, Meta and Amazon – according to the latest Global Advertising Trends report from WARC Data.

Global Advertising Trends: Where is the money going?

• Following on from a meteoric 23.8% rise to a total of US$771 billion this year – the strongest growth in WARC's four decades of market monitoring – advertising investment is forecast to rise by a further 12.5% and 8.3% in 2022 and 2023 respectively, with e-commerce platforms set to lead this growth.
• A survey of 1,350+ marketing practitioners, carried out recently by WARC (before the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19), shows that two in three marketers already committing budgets to Amazon are intending to increase that spend, while heightened advertiser demand is pushing up the average cost-per-click. 
  
• Two thirds of advertising professionals are planning to up spend on TikTok next year, while YouTube (61% of surveyed practitioners), Instagram (60%) and Google (57%) are also set to benefit from higher spend in 2022.
• All product sectors are projected to top pre-COVID investment next year, while most sectors were able to record a full recovery this year. Notable exceptions include transport & tourism, which led growth with an absolute increase of $12.5bn this year but this is still almost $2.9bn down on pre-pandemic spending levels.

WARC says 

“Despite potential headwinds, market data show that we are currently witnessing a boom in advertising trade like none seen before, led by increased demand for retail media and ancillary publishers such as Google and Instagram, which is now the world’s largest social platform. Our projections show that this trend is set to continue” – James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC.

Details of trends by media, format and product category can be viewed here.

China's Gen Z offer potential for imported brands

Gen Z consumers are the fastest-growing cohort on Tmall Global, Alibaba’s cross-border marketplace, and are helping reshape the consumer market – they’re willing to pay a premium for quality products, with sales of perfume, whiskey and fashion items all growing as a result.

Takeaways 

• The number of shoppers on Tmall Global born after 2000 grew more than 70% in the year to March 2021, according to an Alibaba executive; of the 100 million annual active users on the platform, around 30% were born after 1995.
• Young consumers use scents to express their mood, personality and even values; they’re a driving force behind the growing popularity of niche perfume brands on the platform.
• Young people with interest in wellness and self-care are turning health supplements into snacks; new brands are emerging to cater to this trend. 
• In 2021, more than 6,000 new brands entered China through Alibaba’s import ecosystem. 

Quote

“Consumers of imported goods are getting much younger, with the fastest growth from Gen Z consumers, [so] their huge consumption potential is important to brands” – Alvin Liu, president of Alibaba B2C Retail.

Sourced from Alizila [Image: Tmall]

APAC countries optimistic about 2022: Survey

Most countries in the Asia Pacific region are optimistic about what the new year will bring despite continued concern over rising prices and the consequences of climate change, according to “Global Predictions for 2022”, an Ipsos survey of 33 countries.

Why it matters

Even as COVID-19 remains prevalent, people in APAC are generally confident that vaccination rates will go up although they expect air travel to still be less than what it was in 2019. 

Key insights

• Most of APAC expect a better year in 2022, with China the most optimistic at 94%, followed by India (83%), Australia and Malaysia (both 82%), and Singapore (79%). Only South Korea (71%) and Japan (54%) were lower than the global average of 77%.
• When asked if 2021 was a bad year for them and their families, the countries that most agreed were South Korea (74%), India (63%), Malaysia (62%), Singapore (60%), and Australia (59%); only Japan (49%) and China (39%) were below the global average of 58%.
• But APAC is confident the global economy will be stronger in 2022 than it was in 2021, surpassing the global average of 61%, with China at 87%, India 80%, Malaysia 75%, Singapore 71%, Australia 69%, South Korea 63%, and Japan 62%.
• APAC believes that more than 80% of the world’s population will receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine in 2022, with China at 80%, followed by Malaysia (79%), India (75%), Singapore (70%), Australia (65%), and South Korea (64%); only Japan (45%) polled below the global average of 56%.
• But APAC is pessimistic about travel and 68% in China expect people will fly less in 2022, followed by Singapore (67%), Malaysia (66%), Australia (57%), and India (52%); with the global average at 45%, Japan (36%) and South Korea (35%) are more hopeful.

Background

The Ipsos online survey was conducted from October 22nd to November 5th 2021 among 22,023 adults aged 16-74 in 33 countries.

Proposal to TL;DR terms of service isn't a bad idea

Terms of service are mostly ignored as we go straight for the ‘agree’ button, leaving many people with no actual idea what they’re agreeing to – now, a group of US politicians are proposing a brevity law, an idea that some brands might want to get ahead of.

Why it matters

Whether or not the law passes, brands have the opportunity to build trust by stating extremely clearly what data they are collecting. Getting in early looks better than being forced to submit, kicking and screaming.

The story

• As online privacy continues to trouble lawmakers, activists, and increasingly users, efforts to make sure people know what they’re consenting to have crept up in certain pieces of legislation around the world. Europe’s GDPR, for instance, stipulated explicit and informed consent, but differing interpretations between nations and companies mean there is little consensus on the best way of doing this.
• Now, the Washington Post reports, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers are proposing a TLDR (Too long; didn’t read) act to stipulate that sites provide users with an easy-to-understand summary of what they are collecting, and whether they have suffered any recent data breaches.
• Deeply influenced by recent whistle-blower revelations around Meta’s Facebook, the proposal specifically looks to social media’s use of data.
• In this case, it’s unclear how transparent you can be in summary, given that ‘we will use your data for ad targeting’ doesn’t actually explain anything new.

Quote

“Users should not have to comb through pages of legal jargon in a website’s terms of services to know how their data will be used.

“Requiring companies to provide an easy-to-understand summary of their terms should be mandatory and is long overdue” – Senator Bill Cassidy (R-La.)

Sourced from the Washington Post. [Image: Pexels]

Check My Ads puts ad exchanges in the spotlight

A campaign that takes aim at ad exchanges directing advertiser investment to sites propagating the myth of a stolen presidential election has wider implications.

What is it?

The Check My Ads Institute has identified six individuals it says are the “loudest proponents of The Big Lie” and aims to cut off their funding.

Why it matters

The world of ad tech is complicated and opaque so it’s understandable that most activists tackling hate speech and disinformation have focused primarily on brands and publishers in their efforts to disrupt the flow of ad dollars. But this new approach is concentrating on what the industry itself has long known – that advertisers don’t have complete control over where their content ends up and ad tech is the real issue. 

The Check My Ads Institute says the disinformation crisis is solvable and it has a playbook. 

Quote

“The ad industry has talked about brand safety ad nauseam, but they do not name names, because no one wants to get their hands dirty. Unless we name these things and name the people who are bad actors, we cannot make progress in [this] space” – Nandini Jammi, co-founder, Check My Ads Institute, talking to Protocol.

Sourced from Protocol [Image:Lumascape]

Media must grow trust, not just debunk facts

New research published in the Harvard Kennedy School of Government’s Misinformation Review argues that news media organisations should put more effort into improving acceptance of reliable information than fighting misinformation.

Why it matters

Debunking, fact-checking, truth-finding. All of it is good and necessary but it has a minimal effect on trust in reliable news organisations. Trust grows differently.

Easier said than done, but it’s a finding that adds some clarity to an increasingly complicated news media landscape – one in which brands are also trying to get their message into trusted environments.

But this story concerns news organisations as brands, too. As Pew finds, trust in the institution of the news media is diminishing, readers and viewers increasingly identify with specific news brands.

The fight for information

Researchers from Oxford University’s Reuters Institute, whose initial findings were first reported in Nieman Lab, base their results on simulations from models.

“Simulations show that, given that most of the news consumed by the public comes from reliable sources, small increases in acceptance of reliable information (e.g., 1%) improve the global information score more than bringing acceptance of misinformation to 0%.”

“Interventions” might include some pretty standard stuff:

• Transparency boxes explaining how a story was put together and by who can enhance credibility.
• Credibility labels, which have been shown to improve the acceptance among those with the lowest quality news diets.
• Fact-checks with opinion pieces defending journalism (only one study backs this).
• Providing fact checking tips/digital literacy tips.

What about other methods?

Curiously absent is the role of advertising, which is complicated but when it’s done right, crafted with quality and placed in prestige environments, can work wonders for building trust. See WARC’s guide to understand how.

Sourced from Nieman Lab, Pew Research, WARC [Image by Madison Inouye from Pexels]

NBCUniversal and RTL partnership promises new advertising opportunities

US-based NBCUniversal is partnering with RTL AdConnect, the international advertising sales house of Europe’s RTL Group, in an arrangement that gives each other access to their premium TV and digital inventory assets. 

Why it matters

The bilateral, international partnership will open up new advertising opportunities for global brand marketers and could mark the start of a trend as more international broadcasters share inventory in order to win ad dollars.

The move enhances NBCUniversal’s One Platform offering – which gives marketers the power to reach audiences wherever they are across the full NBCUniversal ecosystem – as well as increasing the brand’s footprint in key markets outside the US. 

For RTL AdConnect, the partnership reinforces its one-stop-shop offering in Europe, allows them to extend their inventory solutions outside European borders, and to establish stronger and more direct connections with brands based in the US and China.

How it will work 

• RTL AdConnect will provide its European clients and partner agencies access to all NBCUniversal-owned and operated premium, brand-safe TV and digital inventory from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, The Netherlands and Luxembourg.
• NBCUniversal will represent RTL AdConnect’s premium Total Video European portfolio, providing its Chinese and US-based clients strong reach and powerful advertising solutions. This will include the leading TV channels and digital premium platforms from RTL AdConnect’s media partners in the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands and Luxembourg.

Sourced from NBCUniversal, RTL AdConnect

China, South Korea, UK and Brazil lead e-commerce sales

E-commerce accounted for almost a third (31%) of sales among chain retailers worldwide in 2021, with this share highest in China, South Korea, the United Kingdom and Brazil, according to data from WARC's sister company Edge by Ascential.

Why it matters

This strong growth is expected to continue in 2022 as well and as a result, some of the largest retailers are developing their own advertising solutions – WARC Data forecasts e-commerce advertising to be the quickest growing media this year, with spend up by 26.8%.

However, store-based retail continues to account for the majority of sales outside of China and additional research shows consumers prefer a mix of online and offline shopping.

Takeaways

• More than three-quarters (77%) of chain retail sales in China were online last year, with South Korea following at 44%.
• The United Kingdom places third (32%), followed by Brazil (28%).
• The largest increase between 2019 and 2021 was in Latin America - the share in Mexico almost doubled, rising by 80%, while Brazil saw a strong rise of 75%.

Sourced from Edge by Ascential, WARC Data

Guochao drives success on Douyin

Nine out of the top ten beauty brands sold through social network Douyin last year were Chinese, and sales of domestic brands in other categories are growing fast, as Guochao (or ‘China chic’), becomes an increasingly important retail trend.

Why it matters

Recent figures from the platform put the share of domestic products last year at 89%, and claim overall sales volume increased by 667% year-on-year. Such newer sales channels are where local brands are going to reach young consumers.

International brands, meanwhile, are sticking to more established e-commerce channels. South China Morning Post cites data intelligence firm Syntun figures showing that nine of the top ten bestselling beauty brands on Tmall during last year’s Singles’ Day were Western ones.

Context

• Douyin states in its 2021 Douyin E-commerce Domestic Products Development Annual Report that it wants to “promote traditional culture” and “support the growth of Chinese goods.”
• The growing competition from the likes of Douyin and Kuaishou have prompted Alibaba to reorganise the back-end of its Taobao and Tmall platforms with a greater focus on user experience. 
• A new regulation means all platforms are having to tweak their recommendation algorithms. 

Final thought 

“Douyin e-commerce remains a playing field [mostly] for domestic brands. Some international brands have Douyin accounts, but they mainly use it for branding purposes, not selling” – Miro Li, founder of Double V, a Shenzhen-based branding and marketing consultancy. 

Sourced from South China Morning Post [Image Dan Cristian Pădureț from Pexels]

How Childline reassured children they’re not suffering alone

Childline, a free counselling service for children up to the age of 19, reassured young people in the UK that they are not suffering alone with its empathetic “Under the Skin” campaign. 

Child mental health crisis

• The UK is facing a child mental health crisis with around 7% of children having attempted suicide by the age of 17.
• Over 90% of parents are more worried about their child’s mental health than ever before. 
• Many children suffering from poor mental health believe themselves to be alone with their struggles.

The personal fable

• Childline found that many teenagers suffer from a cognitive development issue known as “the personal fable”.
• This makes them feel like they don’t fit in and leads them to believe their problems are unique.
• In reality, almost everyone feels like they don’t fit in. 

Focusing on empathy

• Childline built its campaign around empathy (understanding how someone feels) rather than sympathy (feeling sorry for someone) and demonstrated to young people that feeling different is a universal struggle.
• Childline released a stop-motion film in which a creature disguises itself in the skin of a “normal” teenager and believes he is alone with his struggles before realising he is not the only one hiding something. 
• In an act of empathy and solidarity, the creature removes his skin to reveal the secrets he has been hiding and inspires his classmates to do likewise. 

Results

• The campaign garnered over 63m impressions and reached 7.7 million young people.
• During the campaign, Childline’s 121 chat and support pages saw strong uplifts in views and users.
• The work won Gold in the 2021 APG Creative Strategy Awards.

What retail's strong Christmas tells us about the year ahead

Major UK retailers are reporting results from their Christmas trading and despite worries over supply chains and the rise of the Omicron variant, the commercial news is good – it also illuminates some likely trends for the coming year.

Why it matters

Retailers doing well show the country is shopping: simple enough. When retailers post profits it suggests that the country is happy to pay prices asked; the formula is working, for now.

Across the world, demand is flooding back into the market after lockdowns, but supply remains constrained. Basic economics tells us that prices are going to rise. But markets are unfeeling things; it is the job of marketers to make those price increases (among other aspects) palatable to the British shopper. The task is about to get a lot harder as April brings in big tax rises alongside fast-increasing energy prices.

The picture

• Tesco sales up 0.2% year-on-year, defying analyst predictions of flat sales; full-year profits are forecast ahead of the £2.5-2.6 billion expected.
• Marks and Spencer (M&S) saw record sales, with quarterly sales up 18.4% on 2020 and up 8.6% on 2019.
• Sainsbury’s sales grew 0.1% year-on-year in the quarter to 1/1/22, with food and drink up 6.8% on 2019.
• Aldi sales were up 0.4% for December 2021 versus 2020, but up 8.1% versus 2019, with new stores helping to drive sales of alcohol and premium private-label items in the Christmas period.

Analysis

• It’s a tale of two radically different strategies. Tesco and Sainsbury’s, which have quite extensive online shopping and delivery infrastructure, are in a tussle for loyalty. Tesco’s Clubcard is bringing in custom and fuelling new brand-side products like its first-party media and insight platform.
• Tesco’s e-commerce sales grew 19% year-over-year, according to data from Edge by Ascential (which also owns WARC). This suggests e-commerce is less of a growth engine than table stakes.
• M&S, meanwhile, with a smaller physical footprint, has invested heavily in its e-commerce capabilities and has been able to build on food sales momentum with its resurgent home and clothing sales, with delivery scale getting goods to consumers.
• Aldi, meanwhile, defies the general trend. By eschewing digital sales and doubling down on physical, it cuts a lonely figure in British retail. While certain analysts call its results disappointing, it has kept up. But good times for Aldi can presage bad times for normal people.
• Chief Executive, Giles Hurley made mention of how higher costs of living would make the discounter’s proposition more attractive. “As we look ahead, the top priority for most families this year will be managing their household budgets in the face of rising living costs.”
• The year ahead has some precedent. One way of reading post-2008 retail history is that the incumbents’ short-sighted insistence on maintaining profits meant ceding ground to discounters like Aldi and Lidl, allowing them to become major mainstream players in UK retail.

The importance of delivering value

CEOs are talking a good game about mitigating any inflation-driven price rises, with some even pegging their prices to the discounters, but much of the task for the coming year will fall to the marketing department. At the bottom end of the market the question is how to make discounters even more attractive to erstwhile Tesco-shoppers. For the big retailers, the question is how to communicate that superior quality is worth shoppers’ hard-won pennies.

M&S CEO Steve Rowe used an interesting definition of value – a watchword for the year ahead – as “satisfaction minus price”. Satisfaction is in the mind of the beholder.

Sourced from The Guardian, FT, Edge, WARC Image by [Tara Clark on Unsplash]

Investors inveigh against purpose

Activist investors are taking aim at the focus on purpose of some fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies, with Unilever, in particular, in the firing line.

What’s happening

Last year Unilever CEO Alan Jope suggested that the purpose of its Hellmann’s mayonnaise brand is to fight against food waste. “A company which feels it has to define the purpose of Hellmann’s mayonnaise has in our view clearly lost the plot,” responded one activist investor earlier this week. 

Why it matters

Jope’s point was that food waste contributes significantly towards greenhouse gas emissions, so anything that can help reduce those has to be a good thing. Corporate attitudes towards sustainability have been shifting as thinking around environmental, social and governance (ESG) evolves and as research indicates consumers have a positive attitude towards brands that take such issues seriously. Indeed, there is arguably a strong marketing case for using sustainability in branding.

But as the pandemic drags on and inflation grows, it’s quite possible that sustainability could slip down the agenda as economic recovery is a priority for brands and affordability is key for many consumers. A push from activist investors to put the spotlight on profits and growth could signal a reappraisal of marketing strategies.

Final thought

“From its early origins, a social purpose has been anchored in Unilever’s DNA. More than an undue obsession with ESG, Unilever has, like Danone, mostly suffered from unfortunate product categories and geographical exposure” – Sébastien Thevoux-Chabuel, ESG analyst and portfolio manager at Comgest.

Sourced from Financial Times, WARC [Image Unilever.co.uk]

UK Government backs blockchain initiative for digital advertising

The UK Government, through its innovation agency, Innovate UK, has awarded a six-figure grant to TAG TrustNet to boost efforts to make the digital advertising market more accountable, responsible and efficient.

What is TAG TrustNet?

TAG TrustNet was launched in February 2021 after a twelve-month cross-industry pilot programme and industry consultation. It’s a first-of-its-kind initiative that uses blockchain technology, specifically Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), to reconcile billions of advertising impressions in near real-time to improve transparency, accountability and efficiency.

Why it matters

TAG TrustNet is already one of the most advanced DLT innovation programmes across the UK economy. Innovate UK believes that it provides an exemplar for other sectors to learn from and follow and, ultimately, can drive export opportunities. 

Quote

“From increasing trust and transparency in digital advertising, to improving the buying and planning of programmatic media, to reducing operational costs, the benefits to the global industry are enormous” – Paul Bainsfair, director general, IPA.

Sourced from IPA

What's behind Tata's move to become IPL title sponsor?

News that Tata Group is to replace VIVO as title sponsor for the Indian Premier League 2022 came out of the blue and now the industry is speculating as to the reasons for the change.

What’s happened?

Chinese smartphone manufacturer VIVO stepped in to replace PepsiCo as title sponsor in 2015 after the latter ended its contract two years early. In 2020, Vivo agreed with the Board of Control for Cricket in India to take a pass on that year’s event in view of the anti-China sentiment in the country before returning in 2021. 

Now VIVO too has chosen to exit early, reportedly because of low ROI and ongoing investigations into possible financial irregularities, although border issues with China may also become an issue again in upcoming state elections.

What in it for Tata?

Observers are divided on the benefit to Tata Group as the headline sponsor, with some arguing that, as a conglomerate, there is little for consumers to relate to. But individual units already sponsored events which were branded as Tata (e.g. the Tata Marathon rather than the Tata Consultancy Services Marathon).

Over the past couple of years, Tata Group has been acquiring more consumer-facing businesses and has restructured existing ones. Picking up the IPL sponsorship could be canny tactical move to help reframe Tata as a younger, more modern business while taking advantage of the tournament’s huge reach and engagement to drive affinity and relevancy. 

A Tata insider told Exchange4Media that the company is “getting very serious towards being a new-age company and a strong consumer-centric entity, willing to get out of its legacy framework not just internally but in its marketing communications too”.

Sourced from afaqs!, Exchange4Media

Auto, tech and telco brands are most appropriate sport sponsors

Consumers think auto, tech and telco brands are the most appropriate sponsors of professional sports clubs, leagues and athletes, according to a survey across 17 markets by YouGov.

Why it matters

Sports sponsorship is attractive to many advertisers as it offers an opportunity to reach large audiences and while the pandemic caused widespread disruption, new performance-driven models have since emerged.

However, the suitability of brands varies – only 12% of consumers say gambling brands are appropriate sport sponsors and this drops to 10% for cryptocurrencies.

Takeaways

• More than a third of consumers say automakers (36%) are appropriate sport sponsors, with tech (34%) and telecommunication (34%) brands following close behind.
• Only 12% say gambling brands are appropriate and this drops to 10% for cryptocurrencies.

Sourced from YouGov, WARC Data

What the new normal looks like: Google data

Multiple years into the pandemic and what we all wanted to know in March 2020 – how, exactly, the pandemic would change our economy and society – is becoming clear; Google and Axios analysis illuminates what’s changed.

A collaborative visualisation

The search firm, along with the online publication Axios and design firm Schema, has put together a new site to explore how search interests have been changing over the course of the crisis, taking in topics from roller skates, to tequila, to bleach.

What’s sticking

•  Work from home: now we have invested, we appear to be continuing to use those home office items.
• Beauty is back as we’re back to socialising, but loungewear doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. We have tasted the forbidden fruit and there’s no going back.
• Optimisation. Given we’re at home more, home-improvement has continued from the beginning of the pandemic.

Sourced from Google, Axios, Schema. Image: Google