4Ps are key as e-commerce players look for profit

Marketers for companies that sell goods online should return to the 4Ps of product, price, place and promotion to counter the changing fortunes of e-commerce, according to a new WARC exclusive report by JP Castlin and James Hankins.

Why it matters

Brands in retail and many other sectors have increased their focus on direct sales to customers online in recent years. But the rise in online sales has – according to the authors – had a negative impact on profitability. In a gloomier economic climate there has been a shift in emphasis from growth to profit, increasing the pressure on businesses that sell principally online – the collapse of Made.com in the UK is an example.

What do they recommend?

Castlin, a strategic management consultant, and Hankins, Global VP Marketing Strategy and Planning at Sage, argue in the white paper that marketers in these companies can mitigate this pressure. For example:

• Optimising fulfilment – for example, by developing a 'marketplace' approach that brings additional products or brands into the mix offered to consumers;
• Rethinking pricing, including delivery and return fees;
• Investing in proprietary ad networks (retail media);
• Using brand-building advertising to soften price sensitivity among consumers.

Where can I find out more?

The full report is available to subscribers of WARC Strategy and WARC Digital Commerce via warc.com. For one week only it is available to download to non-subscribers here.

Final thought

"Companies that fail to mitigate the cost of e-commerce will find themselves dangerously exposed. Not only is consumer demand shifting, but capital is, in the wake of rampant inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes, becoming increasingly expensive and difficult to come by."

Why ‘precision branding’ is a good bet in a downturn

While brands are advised to maintain or even increase their marketing spend during an economic downturn, how they spend that money is as important as the mere fact of having it.

That’s according to Boston Consulting Group, which quantifies how key business performance metrics suffer if spending is cut, and adds that “reducing brand investments also leaves companies no more profitable in the short run”.

Why it matters

The case for maintaining marketing budgets during a period of economic uncertainty has been made before in terms of the impact of extra share of voice. BCG adds a business angle and suggests marketers can “radically enhance” how they spend their budget.

Key stats 

BCG’s research demonstrates that cutting brand spending in a downturn leads to declines relative to those brands that maintain or increase spending, including:

• a six percentage point lower shareholder return
• 13 percentage point lower sales growth 
• a 0.8 percentage point decline in market share
• an 18 percentage point decline in likelihood to recommend.

Towards more effective spending 

Maintaining a budget and spending it in the usual way may be better than cutting spending but it’s not the most effective approach. BCG advocates what it calls “precision branding” as a way to overcome the limitations of typical brand-marketing strategies. This examines demand spaces and has three components: 

• Precision Targeting: decide which are the most important customers to keep and look at where new customers may be available as competitors capitulate.
• Precision Activation: reach consumers in places where messages will resonate most strongly (digital channels will typically do this better).
• Precision Measurement: complement long-term KPIs with short-term metrics that correlate with long-term results, such as sales and market share, and monitor them regularly. 

Sourced from BCG

China sees concentration of luxury buyers

China’s entry-level luxury consumers are unlikely to be drawn into a spending spree as the economy begins to pick up after the easing of Covid restrictions, according to a new report from Bain & Company.

Why it matters

Globally, Bain reports that the top 2% of customers account for about 40% of luxury sales and that pattern is broadly replicated in China, where the consultancy also observes a growing concentration of such VICs (Very Important Customers). These people buy more frequently online and off. 

Luxury marketers are likely to find themselves targeting a significantly smaller audience than was the case pre-pandemic, with greater focus on high-net-worth individuals and less on middle-class purchasers who will be more cautious in their spending. 

Context

Luxury spending declined in 2022 – 10% across the sector – but some categories were worse hit than others. Those with strong online penetration were less affected: luxury beauty, for example, has an online penetration of 50% and contracted just 6%.

Takeaways

• When in-store shopping became possible again, luxury customers weren’t browsing but completing short, targeted shopping trips.
• Bigger and iconic brands typically outperformed smaller and trends-focused ones.
• The resumption of travel will boost the domestic market initially, where duty-free shopping in Hainan had become important pre-Covid. As international travel picks up, luxury brands may need to rethink their global pricing strategies.

Sourced from Bain & Company

Raw footage trend hints at users’ online appetites

New research into video content of last year’s biggest stories across Europe finds a preference for raw, authentic, in-the-moment footage: a finding that could have implications for branded content.

Why it matters

Sony’s research, which also plugs its cloud video production software, suggests that the prevalence of roughly shot, unedited video, and the popularity of archive, point to two useful conclusions about online content: users like to find things online, and users want to put more experiential context into news.

What it says

The research is based on search and social analytics, to identify the highest-interest news stories on Twitter across eight European markets. A team of researchers then explored the trends found among the highest-engagement videos about these major stories.

• UGC (user-generated content) accounted for a greater share of results than content produced by traditional news outlets (39% versus 30% respectively).
• 37% of high-engagement videos were unedited.
• 47% of videos had one or more of the following: tear-jerking moments, offered greater primary material (who said what when) about the news event, or singular perspectives of a news event.

While the aim of the research is to induce media businesses to invest in speeding up their video workflows (and the accessibility of their archives), it helps to illuminate some of the deeper trends in user engagement among an European audience.

Key quote

“This research shows this is a clear driver of online engagement and there is an appetite to feel and experience news as it's unfolding in its raw form” – Clothilde Redfern, Chairwoman of the Rory Peck Trust, a charity for the safety and welfare of freelance journalists.

Sourced from Sony Europe

Redefining grocery in a post-pandemic world

Amid concerns about whether shoppers would return to stores post-pandemic, a less-observed development has been consumers redefining what they regard as grocery items.

Why it matters

This change in mindset also changes where – and how – consumers shop for these items, according to data and news site PYMTS. The pandemic pushed people toward online shopping and while they’re now returning to stores, they’re not necessarily seeking out the same things when there.

PYMTS wonders if grocery stores may face the same fate as department stores, with consumers increasingly regarding grocery purchases as they would any other product: just as likely to be purchased online or at a specialty physical retailer. Grocery stores could face a vicious circle of declining footfall leading to fewer SKUs being stocked, which then leads to a further decline in footfall.

What’s happening

According to data from PYMNTS:

• Three years ago, 80% of US consumers classified canned goods, cooking supplies, condiments and spices as grocery products; in 2023 that figure has fallen to 60%.
• 44% fewer consumers say they buy at least some of their cleaning supplies at the grocery store.
• 24% fewer consumers habitually pick up health and beauty products as part of their grocery shopping.
• Six in 10 (62%) consumers cite convenience as the reason for buying fewer things at the grocery store and more online.
• Purchases of both canned goods and cleaning supplies by subscription increased at least 35% over the last three years; purchases of baby products by subscription grew 77%.

The brand opportunity 

Brands are likely to need to develop more nuanced strategies – finding ways to offer deals to attract instant sales on grocery marketplaces like Instacart while also tapping subscription offerings like Amazon Subscribe & Save. These can tie in consumers for longer periods – especially for items they buy repeatedly and without thinking about too much.

And in the physical world, a presence in local specialty stores (and their websites where consumers are searching) can drive a trial of new or high-value products.

Sourced from PYMNTS

Hershey CEO: ‘We believe in advertising’

The Hershey Company, which owns snack brands including Reese’s, Jolly Ranchers and SkinnyPop, is bolstering its pricing and innovation strategy with increased investments in advertising. 

Why it matters 

As Hershey has implemented price increases due to inflation, advertising has been an essential investment to continue brand storytelling and keep consumers engaged. 

By the numbers

• Hershey’s volumes rose 4% in the year to 31 December despite average pricing increases of 8%.
• Advertising and related consumer spending increased 3.3% in Q4.
• Constant net sales increased by 16.4% for the full year.
• Chocolate and salty snacks – Hershey’s two biggest categories – rank as two of the top three treats that consumers are not willing to forgo, even as higher inflation forces cuts elsewhere in their food budget.

A firm belief in advertising 

Advertising plays an essential role in growing Hershey’s iconic brands, especially in an environment where price increases have been necessary. 

“Our long-term model [is that] we believe in advertising. We've seen the impact and the returns that we get on advertising, in terms of having very strong ROI,” said company chairman and CEO Michele Buck on its Q4 2022 earnings call. 

“We take a very data-based approach to media spending, and we invest where we see that incremental profitable growth. Over time, we do know that advertising builds consumer connectivity, and we know that consumer connectivity is part of what helps us to have the [pricing] elasticities that we do,” she added.

The CEO explained that “connectivity leads to them continuing to buy”, which is important during inflationary times, with analysis done to validate that. Analysis of Hershey’s marketing investments also showed that when advertising spend was reduced – as occurred last year due to capacity constraints – there was a negative impact on demand.

“We're also investing in some of our whitespace opportunities, like gummies and ‘better for you’ to strengthen the business, as well as our salty brands where we're really in a major growth mode, gaining household penetration and gaining market share. We want to continue that momentum,” Buck said. 

Ad Net Zero USA seeks to drive industry climate action

Ad Net Zero USA, a program seeking “collective industry action to decarbonize ad operations” and promote sustainable habits, has launched with the backing of various leading trade bodies and marketers.

Five key goals

Five goals for Ad Net Zero USA are:

• Brands committing to reducing their emissions in clear, measurable ways.
• Clients, agencies and production companies using tools and training to track, manage and reduce the environmental impact of ad production.
• Media agencies, working with clients, achieving similar goals for media distribution.
• Event organisers incorporating sustainability credentials into their entry criteria and minimising the carbon footprint of industry gatherings.
• Using the power of advertising to encourage more sustainable consumer choices and habits.

Big-name backers

• Ad Net Zero USA is spearheaded by the Association of National Advertisers (ANA), American Association of Advertising Agencies (4As) and Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), three leading industry groups.
• More than 50 other organisations have signed up to this program, which hopes to bring change to a market that is responsible for 40% of global adspend.
• That list includes consumer packaged goods manufacturers Reckitt and Unilever, and media owner Vox Media.
• Agency holding companies dentsu, Havas, Interpublic Group, Omnicom, Publicis Groupe and WPP are also on board.
• Further representation comes from tech giants Meta and Google, programmatic ad company PubMatic and trade body IAA, as well as WARC and Cannes Lions.

Further details

• Ad Net Zero was launched in the UK by the Advertising Association, in partnership with fellow trade bodies ISBA and the IPA, in late 2020.
• An initial commitment is to deliver training which is tailored to the US market and helps industry professionals understand the steps they can take in tackling climate change.
  
• Several US working groups, focused on tools and techniques for reducing carbon emissions, will be founded around the five priorities shaping the Ad Net Zero agenda.

The big idea

“The time is now to unify the advertising industry to solve one of the toughest challenges facing our industry and the world.” – John Osborn, director, Ad Net Zero USA.

Google steps up AI arms race with Bard

Following the cultural success and early commercial promise of ChatGPT, Google has announced its competitor with access to up to date information and a far larger language model to draw on, just one of the major search companies now coming to market – here are a few ideas about what makes Bard’s release different.

Why it matters

OpenAI’s ChatGPT was exciting and novel, but it was based on Transformer technology (the T in the GPT) invented by Google, which also has a much bigger and more developed language model in the shape of LaMDA.

However, powerful applications at the scale of Google are difficult to do, so it is interesting to see the company treading carefully in the space while also leaning on its existing leadership in search, and adding a little detail to the AI promises of its most recent earnings announcement.

This said, the announcement so hot on the heels of ChatGPT’s smash hit demo does a lot to confirm reports that Google had been in a ‘code red’ situation – it’s worrying that such world-changing technologies could come down to a rushed arms race.

Introducing Bard

In a blog post, Google CEO Sundar Pichai introduced the new product as a conversational AI service intended to outflank ChatGPT in one key dimension: “It draws on information from the web to provide fresh, high-quality responses.” This is an area that ChatGPT’s public demo has been unable to do and will be far more difficult for the smaller company to emulate.

Conversational AI will also start to bleed into the search experience “soon”, Pichai writes, noting that lots of searches are moving beyond the factual and into the space of insights – he gives the example of asking which instruments are easier to learn, which requires an engagement with different perspectives.

But it’s worth thinking about some of the other issues that Pichai addresses:

• Bard will initially run on a lightweight version of LaMDA. This is interesting because it lets Google attack the space at scale, potentially without much of the throttling that has hampered users of ChatGPT at peak times.
• Ultimately, these systems are very costly to provide at the level of computing with some estimates suggesting natural language searching is seven times more expensive than a traditional search.
• Like ChatGPT’s public release, this iteration of Bard is a test and user feedback is critical. Arguably, Google’s reputation raises the bar that Bard’s accuracy and truthfulness must meet far higher than that of the startup.
• There remains a significant question, however, about how these services will affect how Google monetises its services should it pivot further into AI.

Baidu and Ernie

IT publication The Register adds more colour to the rumours of Baidu’s new chatbot, which will be known as Wenxin Yiyan in China and ERNIE outside China. Based on a language model larger than GPT3, and born bilingual, the chatbot could turn out to be extremely important in the development of the field (and to the operations and fortunes of global brands operating in China) once it completes testing in March.

Sourced from Google, WARC, The Register, New York Times

Super Bowl: network toasts record bookings, platforms chase second screen

Traditional advertising around the Super Bowl reaches new, expensive heights while digital platforms vie to be the second-screen destination of choice.

Why it matters

The Super Bowl’s advertising mix is changing, but the high price of a spot during the live broadcast appears to grow, amid reportedly high audience excitement. Meanwhile, digital platforms battle it out for a share of the real-time conversation by selling space cheap.

Of course, both forms are a type of gamble but successful brands can capture some of the best quality reach at very good value, if the creative work and the cross-media plans come off. The trick, much of the research shows, is being able to match the spectacle of the occasion, across platforms, and in a way that benefits the brand (rather than the celebrities who tend to star in the ads).

What’s going on: Fox counts the benefits of a record year

Fox Sports, this year’s rights holder, has booked record sums as it heads into this Sunday’s Super Bowl clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs.

• The network says it has managed to sell some of its 30-second spots for over $7m, while most brands are paying closer to a relatively reasonable $6.5m.
• “It’s certainly far and away the most money that we’ve ever booked in a Super Bowl,” said Fox Sports EVP/Sales Mark Evans in comments to Sports Business Journal. “All of the usual suspects are there.”
• Timing: exclusivity deals, such as that of AB InBev on alcohol advertising during the broadcast, have ended, opening up more spending opportunities for competitors.

It has been a complicated year for the broadcaster, which began the season with the vast majority of inventory sold, only for major crypto advertisers to pull out – now-collapsed FTX, for instance, had booked a minute-long slot. Other brands, meanwhile, have held back amid economic and supply chain problems.

The battle for the real-time conversation

Platforms, on the other hand, vie for the real-time conversation, with TikTok pushing its relevance and topicality hard.

Digiday has the news that some digital platforms are offering big deals, based on pitch decks seen by the website:

• Twitter has offered brands up to $250,000 in free ad space.
• TikTok will offer ad credit to the tune of 3%-5% for brands that spend between $50,00-$300,000 on Super Bowl campaigns.

Twitter remains the main destination for conversation during the broadcast but with brands concerned about the current direction of the platform, its ability to turn that traffic into commercial gain is under threat. Namely from TikTok.

Sourced from Sports Business Journal, Digiday, Bloomberg, WARC

Pinterest’s video push boosts Gen Z engagement

Pinterest, the image sharing and social media service, is seeing accelerated interest from Gen Z even in a softening advertising market, according to company executives. 

Gen Z was once again the fastest-growing cohort for Pinterest in the most recent quarter, growing double digits year-on-year. 

By the numbers

• Pinterest grew global monthly active users in Q4 to 450 million, up both sequentially and year-over-year.
• Global mobile app users account for over 80% of impressions.
• Pinterest generated advertising revenue of $2.8 billion for the full year, growing 9% or 11% on a constant currency basis.
• In 2022, Pinterest advertisers adopting a multi-objective media strategy saw up to a 50% improvement in sales lift.

Video drives deeper engagement

“We're building an experience that resonates with this audience on Pinterest, specifically around video. In fact, nearly half of all new videos pinned in Q4 were from Gen Z users. And in Q4, Gen Z sessions grew much faster than sessions from our other demographics,” said CEO Bill Ready on its recent Q4 2022 earnings call. 

The company recently announced a deal with Condé Nast Entertainment to create high-quality video content aligned with Pinterest's key seasonal and cultural moments, such as fashion months, wedding season, summer and back-to-school.

“We remain focused on growing our supply of videos from multiple sources, including creators, brands and publishers,” Ready said. “Last quarter, we grew our supply of video content 30% quarter-over-quarter … We believe high-quality and inspiring content will further deepen engagement, especially for Gen Z.”

Increasing monetization per user 

Pinterest is also looking to boost monetization per user through its advertising initiatives, said the CEO. “Pinterest is unique because users come to our platform with intent, and we are one of the few places where people can go from seeking inspiration to fulfilling that intent through action.” He added that the platform had built a “full ad solution” that helps advertisers meet users in their journey across the funnel, from top to bottom.

“In fact, our revenue is roughly split across the funnel with one-third brand, one-third consideration and one-third conversion. We've seen advertisers who take a full funnel approach see more success than those who are only active on one campaign objective,” Ready said.

UK CTV and gaming adspend to double in three years

UK advertising spend on connected TV (CTV) and gaming is predicted to double in the next three years, hitting a combined £4.15bn by 2026.

That’s according to IAB Compass, a new report from the digital industry body created with research consultancy MTM, that looks at the evolution of four fast-growing digital channels: CTV, gaming, AR/VR and shoppable advertising. 

Why it matters

The figures reflect: 

• the impact of an ongoing shift to streaming among audiences and an increase in ad-supported viewing as people look to cut down on subscriptions;
• the adoption of gaming by advertisers across a broader range of sectors, from financial services to healthcare.

CTV takeaways 

• Ad spend is forecast to rise from £1.17bn in 2021 to £2.31bn in 2026, including BVOD and YouTube. 
• Adoption of CTV by large advertisers is now close to that of linear TV and digital video.
• With a low minimum spend compared to TV, CTV is attracting a broader set of advertisers. 
• The CTV market needs to address challenges with fragmentation, standardisation and measurement – particularly beyond BVOD and YouTube – in order to fully mature. 

Gaming/other takeaways 

• Current ad spend of £815m is predicted to rise to £1.84bn by 2026.
• Native, in-game ad formats will continue to boost the gaming market, providing advertisers with the ability to combine brand and performance goals. 
• While most ad spend is currently focused on mobile gaming, if developers and advertisers embrace PC/console gaming that would significantly accelerate growth in the sector. 
• Advertisers’ investment in AR is likely to reach £250-350m by 2026. 
• Social commerce sales are predicted to reach £6.8bn [gross merchandise value] over the next three years. 

Key quote

“Between them, these four digital channels are poised to accelerate growth in digital spend over the next few years as advertisers capitalise on the potential for full-funnel marketing, marrying creative storytelling with actionable targeting” – Hannah Bewley, Senior Research & Measurement Manager at IAB UK.

Sourced from IAB UK

India’s short video platforms look to live commerce

Domestic short video platforms that sprang up in the wake of India’s ban on TikTok are turning their sights to live commerce, part of a social commerce market that could be worth $70bn within a few years.

That’s according to executives quoted in Afaqs!, who believe that live commerce is a significant opportunity. 

Why it matters

Live commerce has been a huge success in China, less so elsewhere – it’s one reason Meta has reconsidered its approach and is removing the ‘Shop’ tab from Instagram to focus instead on Reels. But in India, the local players are undeterred. 

“E-commerce platforms like Myntra or Flipkart, or home-grown social platforms like ShareChat, Chingari, Josh, etc., are embracing live commerce because the traffic they attract comes with the intention of product discovery,” says Akshay Gurnani, CEO and co-founder of Schbang. 

Takeaways 

• Sunil Kumar Mohapatra, CRO of Josh’s parent company, says social media and video-sharing apps have already become important touchpoints for brands in terms of product discovery and influencer recommendation, so adding a checkout option makes sense to complete the shopping journey.
• Deepak Salvi, co-founder and COO of Chingari, says many of its users are in lower-tier cities, where influencers have a much stronger connection with audiences. 

• Add in the limited presence of major brands in smaller cities and he believes there’s a strong live commerce proposition that could contribute around 15% of revenue in the near future.

Key quote

“I suggest these platforms need to offer exclusive products and deals, focus on creating engaging, entertaining, and educational content that’s not easily available elsewhere” – Sanjeev Jasani, COO, Cheil India.

Sourced from Afawqs!

Brands plan for China recovery

Anticipating a wave of “revenge spending” as China moves away from its zero-Covid strategy, mall owners report a surge of new tenants, while online retail platforms are busy improving the user experience.

Why it matters

Many brands attracted to China’s huge market saw growth stall over the past three years, but as the economy reopens there’s a renewed sense of optimism. However, there is some uncertainty as to just how strong the recovery will be and whether increased consumer spending will be cautious rather than extravagant.

What’s happening 

• A study from Bain & Company and Kantar points to pent-up demand for packaged food and personal-care products, with Gen Z, in particular, driving revenge spending in cosmetics. 
• “At least” 13 global chain-store operators are in the process of opening their first mainland Chinese shops in Shanghai, according to the South China Morning Post.
• Tenants include Japanese food and drink maker Suntory, French candlemaker Trudon and Swiss furniture maker USM.
• Meanwhile, Alibaba is focused on optimising the user experience across its online platforms, Jing Daily reports, with more short videos, AR trial fittings and metaverse activations. 

Key quote

“In 2023, a strong recovery of shopping activities will be seen from the second quarter. More lease agreements will be signed as new-energy vehicles, personal care brands, garment makers and outdoor sportswear companies look to open new stores” – Sherril Sheng, research director at real estate firm JLL China.

Sourced from South China Morning Post, Jing Daily

Rivian looks to growing e-bike category for profitability

Rivian, an electric vehicle maker, is working on an e-bike amid profitability woes in the electric car space, according to reports.

Why it matters

Electric vehicles come in more shapes than just cars and vans, which had been Rivian’s focus until now. A move toward e-bikes could help shore up some of the profitability and production problems that have dogged the company over the course of last year, leading to significant layoffs and even denting the balance sheets of its major investors (Amazon owns 20%).

Bloomberg, which first reported the news based on sources present at a company meeting, notes that it’s unclear whether the work is focused on a battery-assisted bicycle or on an e-motorbike.

Other car brands have made the move based on their manufacturing capabilities, and the huge growth of the e-bike market, which is set to outsell all electric cars in the US and all cars of any kind in Europe. However, there are signs that the cost-of-living crisis is hitting demand in certain markets.

While a more accessible product might drive volume, actually making enough bikes might remain a significant issue for Rivian.

E-mobility in focus: a B2B opportunity

Though the e-bike market has been booming, a shift to two wheels hasn’t yet improved the fortunes of other car marques that have broadened their product line.

Well-known brands like Mercedes, Jeep, and Porsche have all introduced an e-bike offer but have typically priced their products at the absolute top end of the market (way above the typical $1500 price point). Whether these do more for these brands than demonstrate a commitment to electrification and sustainability, remains to be seen.

Yet other car brands, such as Toyota, have targeted the electric cargo bike space, with the potential of speaking to a large and more stable business audience, as deliveries move to e-mobility.

Back in October, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe pointed out this potential market in a conference appearance: “The e-bike space is something we’re super excited about. We haven’t announced anything or said anything there. But I do think it is going to play an increasingly important role for transportation, both in the movement of goods for commercial purposes, but also for the movement of people.”

Meanwhile, some of the more visible players in the space, such as Netherlands-based VanMoof, have targeted buyers weighing up the benefits of a car or an e-bike for personal transportation as part of a strategy based on shifting its competitive set.

It’s not yet clear whether this is possible for car brands. VanMoof, whose distinctive design and Apple-like simplicity have made it very popular among urbanites, still came close to financial ruin toward the end of 2022, only to secure new sources of funding.

Sourced from Bloomberg, WARC, WSJ, Electrek, Cycling Industry, Mercedes, Porsche, Cycling Weekly.