Don’t use the ‘R’ word
In its briefing note last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that global economic activity had contracted in the second quarter of 2022 and, as a consequence, it had reduced its baseline outlookfor the year by 0.4 percentage points (pp) to +3.2%. The Fund also cut 2023’s growth prospects – by almost twice as much – to a rate of +2.9%. Both projections are approximately half the rate of expansion seen in 2021 (+6.2%) and are predominantly reflective of stalling growth in three economic areas which account for 60% of global output: the US,...