Footfall data spells Christmas retail trouble 

UK shopping footfall is expected to decline every month between September and November, and while it will pick up in December it won’t recover the losses of previous months.

That’s according to data from retail intelligence firm Springboard, which tracks footfall around the country and which predicts that footfall in December 2022 will be 18% lower than in pre-pandemic 2019.

Context 

Footfall was slowly returning to pre-pandemic levels in the first half of the year but now consumers are struggling with a cost-of-living crisis and are braced for another rise in energy prices next month (even if the increases are less than they would have been thanks to the government’s cap). 

The inevitable response has been to cut back and the usual drop in spending and footfall seen between August and September – the end of the holiday season and the start of the school term – has been deeper than normal.

Key stats

• Month-on-month, footfall is forecast to fall by 4.9% in September, by 2.5% in October and 0.3% in November; December footfall, however, is forecast to increase by 6%, TheIndustry.Fashion reported. 

• Footfall is forecast to rise in all three destination types from November to December: by +4.5% in high streets, +5% in retail parks and +10% in shopping centres.
• The potential drop in footfall between September and November means October and November footfall will be lower than last year (-2.1% in October and -2.7% in November versus 2021)

Black Friday takes on new significance

“In contrast to the forecast for September, the drop in footfall in November this year will be mitigated by shoppers being likely to use the discounts available over the Black Friday period to buy Christmas presents with the hope of outrunning inflation” – Diane Wehrle, Insights Director at Springboard.

Sourced from TheIndustry.Fashion