Introduction
I wanted to use the 2017 UK general election to test an intuition, that instead of asking people for predictions about their own future behavior, we might be better off asking them to predict the future behavior of a friend. In short, I had a hunch that we might know the minds of others better than we know our own! Why? The behavioral sciences tells us, variously, that we can be unreliable witnesses to our motivations,1 that we can be over-confident in our ability to stick to intentions,2that we are naturally expert at observing other...