Are the opinion polls ready for 1997

John Curtice

This article discusses the work conducted by opinion poll companies since the 1992 polls disaster. The ensuing five years have seen an extensive debate about why the industry got it wrong, including an official enquiry set up by The Market Research Society.
  

Are the Opinion Polls Ready for 1997?1

John Curtice

CREST and Strathclyde University

INTRODUCTION

The 1992 general election was a disaster for the opinion poll industry. Four polls published on polling day on average reported a one point Labour lead. When the ballot boxes were opened just hours later, the Conservatives proved to be as much as eight points ahead. The pollsters were widely seen to have got it wrong.

The ensuing five years have seen an extensive debate about why the industry got it wrong, including an official inquiry established by the Market Research Society (see...

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