LONDON: Global advertising expenditure is set to grow at the same rate in 2013 as in 2012, despite the lack of a "quadrennial effect", according to a new report which says the market is finally stabilising.
The latest quarterly Advertising Expenditure Forecasts from ZenithOptimedia
, the media services network, forecast growth of 3.5% for 2013, 5.1% for 2014 and 5.9% for 2015.
"Expectations for this year have finally levelled after a long period of slow erosion by bad economic news," it said. The emergence of the Eurozone from recession was a major contributing factor to the brighter outlook.
Following a 5.2% decline in 2012, ZenithOptimedia forecast that the region would see a smaller decline of 4.3% in 2013 before moving into positive territory with 0.7% growth in 2014, increasing to 1.9% in 2015.
"The stability of global adspend growth this year – a year without big events like the Olympics and US elections – shows that the advertising recovery is on track, promising even stronger growth in 2014 and 2015," said Steve King, ZenithOptimedia's CEO, Worldwide.
As well as recovery in Europe, the report expected Rising Markets, defined as everywhere outside of North America, Western Europe and Japan, to continue to prosper.
Some short-term economic difficulties would be more than offset by young populations with improving education, infrastructure, productivity and adoption of technology. Advertisers were investing for the long term, argued ZenithOptimedia, as it increased its 2013 growth forecasts for Rising Markets from 7.0% to 7.6%.
King also noted the impact of mobile: "The increasing penetration of mobile handsets is playing a key role in driving advertising growth across the world," he said.
Mobile advertising remained relatively small, at around 2.8% of total ad expenditure, but the report saw it expanding fast, with 77% growth in 2013, 56% in 2014 and 48% in 2015, by when its share of total adspend would stand at 6.0%.
While mobile had impressive growth rates, desktop internet advertising was predicted to continue to prosper, growing faster than traditional media, at 8% in 2013 and 2014, and 7% in 2015.
Overall, internet advertising was expected to take a 24.6% share of global adspend by 2015, up from 18.3% in 2012.
Warc's own International Ad Forecast
earlier this year predicted 3.0% growth in 2013 rising to 5.4% in 2014.
Data sourced from ZenithOptimedia; additional content by Warc staff