On the possibility of predicting ratings reliably

The paper reports on a secondary analysis of Australian People Meter data, using trend-series data analysis techniques.

On the possibility of predicting ratings reliably.

Ian Garland A.C. Nielsen, Australia

1. INTRODUCTION

As the 20th Century draws to a close, I forecast we will see a number of people reviewing past predictions for the next millennium. Already the New York Times has demonstrated how wrong some predictions can be:

  • By 2000, machines will be producing so much that...only 10% of the population will be working and the rest will have to be paid to remain idle (Time, Feb 25 1966)
  • By...

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