Forecasting without data - a fool's dream? Trying to see the future in China

Mark Ahn and Colin Maitland

This paper reviews many of the problems associated with forecasting in China, discusses alternatives to get around these problems and then reports a case history using a novel approach to forecast sales of a valuable but high cost drug in China.

Forecasting without data - a fool's dream? Trying to see the future in China

Colin Maitland ISIS Research plc, United KingdomMark Ahn Amgen Asia, Hong Kong

INTRODUCTION

Forecasting is a fairly inaccurate science at the best of times. While accurate forecasts can be made they only hold true for that point in time. By the time the forecasted period arrives usually so many factors used in the build up of the forecast have changed that the original forecast five years earlier can look nave at best and misleading at worst.

Despite knowing this, enterprises of all types...

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