The forecasting game

Steven Barnett

Why are most predictions of media penetration almost always proved to be hopelessly wide of the mark? The author argues that the methods used by forecasters are often inadequate - computer predictions are no substitute for a little sociological insight.

The forecasting game

Why are most predictions of media penetration almost always proved to be hopelessly wide of the mark? Steve Barnett argues that the methods used by forecasters are often inadequate – computer predictions are no substitute for a little sociological insight

Steven Barnett

Almost exactly five years ago, in July 1991, I wrote an article for the Independent suggesting that reports about the multi-channel revolution had been much exaggerated. It is difficult now to recapture those heady days, when four-channel television had been condemned to an imminent death, and newspapers (led inevitably by Murdoch’s five national...

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