John Aitchison, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 60, No. 2, 2018, pp. 190-197
This article reports on differences observed when asking a simple polling question in a traditional way—that is, asking respondents for predictions about their own voting behavior versus asking respondents for predictions about a friend's voting behavior.
Robert A. Peterson, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 60, No. 2, 2018, pp. 147-155
Many public opinion polls report a mythical margin of error. These reported margins of error are calculated on the basis of a nonexistent (fictitious) dichotomous poll question and are completely unrelated to the actual question responses in a poll.
Stephen Whiteside, WARC Exclusive, November 2017
Political campaigns invest significant resources in attempts to persuade voters to pick one candidate over a competitor from a rival party, but the impact of these efforts appears to be negligible at best.
Jon Puleston, ESOMAR, Congress, 2017
This paper is a summary of analysis of an international database of over 30,000 polls from 473 elections between 1936 and 2017, to assess accuracy trends within opinion polling in light of recent criticism.
Marion Dumas, Mirta Galesic, Adélaïde Zulfikarpazic, Hervé Tranger, Richard Bordenave and Guillaume Inigo, ESOMAR, Congress, 2017
This paper discusses challenges facing political opinion polls with a particular focus on the 2017 French presidential election, drawing on various sources of voter data from that election as well as research into the influence of social bubbles and fake news on public opinion.