John Aitchison, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 60, No. 2, 2018, pp. 190-197
This article reports on differences observed when asking a simple polling question in a traditional way—that is, asking respondents for predictions about their own voting behavior versus asking respondents for predictions about a friend's voting behavior.
Robert A. Peterson, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 60, No. 2, 2018, pp. 147-155
Many public opinion polls report a mythical margin of error. These reported margins of error are calculated on the basis of a nonexistent (fictitious) dichotomous poll question and are completely unrelated to the actual question responses in a poll.
Stephen Whiteside, WARC Exclusive, November 2017
Political campaigns invest significant resources in attempts to persuade voters to pick one candidate over a competitor from a rival party, but the impact of these efforts appears to be negligible at best.
Jon Puleston, ESOMAR, Congress, 2017
This paper is a summary of analysis of an international database of over 30,000 polls from 473 elections between 1936 and 2017, to assess accuracy trends within opinion polling in light of recent criticism.
Marion Dumas, Mirta Galesic, Adélaïde Zulfikarpazic, Hervé Tranger, Richard Bordenave and Guillaume Inigo, ESOMAR, Congress, 2017
This paper discusses challenges facing political opinion polls with a particular focus on the 2017 French presidential election, drawing on various sources of voter data from that election as well as research into the influence of social bubbles and fake news on public opinion.
NEW YORK: Elections provide the forum where research and polling get the most exposure, and while flawed 2016 forecasts in the US and UK delivered powerful blows to the credibility of the practice, the main issue seems to be one of "pilot error".
As the UK heads to the polls on Thursday, WARC's Alan Saywood explores why pollsters got the 2015 result so wrong, and asks what they must do to put things right and work toward the accuracy that the media and the public demand.
Roger Mortimore, Paul Baines, Robert Worcester and Mark Gill, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 59, No. 3, 2017, pp. 285-300
This Forum article considers the unsatisfactory results of pre-election opinion polling in the 2015 British general election and the BPC/MRS enquiry report into polling by Sturgis et al., providing a response from Ipsos MORI and associated researchers at King’s College London and Cranfield Universities.
Brian Fine and Con Menictas, ESOMAR, Asia Pacific, May 2017
This paper presents a new approach to capturing respondents' emotional drivers of behaviour through research involving free form text, using the example of the 2016 US Presidential election, and listing implications for the Asian market.
TORONTO: Data is becoming increasingly "political" as digital profiling and targeting grow ever more sophisticated – and as electoral candidates leverage similar analytic tools to product marketing campaigns.