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Article

The political and diplomatic storm that is the UK’s exit from the European Union has rocked an insight industry whose political arm failed to foresee the decision.

Research Paper

This article summarizes our work using a network-based approach to mapping the main constituencies discussing specific topics on Twitter.

Research Paper

This article reports on differences observed when asking a simple polling question in a traditional way—that is, asking respondents for predictions about their own voting behavior versus asking respondents for predictions about a friend's voting behavior.

Research Paper

In this article, we report the results of a study that tested a values-based method of predicting political election results.

Research Paper

Many public opinion polls report a mythical margin of error. These reported margins of error are calculated on the basis of a nonexistent (fictitious) dichotomous poll question and are completely unrelated to the actual question responses in a poll.

Research Paper

A non-traditional methodology of polling in small areas, called bellwethers, improves the accuracy of forecasts drawn from a large area.

News

WASHINGTON DC: Only a minority (47%) of consumers in the US believe their news media do very or somewhat well in the accuracy of their reporting of political issues.

Article

Expectations of leadership have changed since the time of the 2015 UK general election, but many of the qualifying conditions endure.

Article

Political campaigns invest significant resources in attempts to persuade voters to pick one candidate over a competitor from a rival party, but the impact of these efforts appears to be negligible at best.

Article

This article presents six lessons that marketers can learn from the results of the 2017 UK general election.

Research Paper

This paper is a summary of analysis of an international database of over 30,000 polls from 473 elections between 1936 and 2017, to assess accuracy trends within opinion polling in light of recent criticism.

Research Paper

This paper discusses challenges facing political opinion polls with a particular focus on the 2017 French presidential election, drawing on various sources of voter data from that election as well as research into the influence of social bubbles and fake news on public opinion.

News

NEW YORK: Elections provide the forum where research and polling get the most exposure – and flawed 2016 forecasts in the US and UK delivered powerful blows to the credibility of this discipline.

Article

This article summarises a webinar on what the 2016 presidential election in the US means for the marketplace and how brands should be reacting to this new state of uncertainty.

Article

This article looks at whether it is possible to ascertain the right questions to ask the right people in order to make a prediction in political polling.

Article

In this viewpoint, the author looks at opinion polls and their varying success in the wake of several global elections and referendums.

Article

This event report outlines some of the failings of political pollsters during the 2016 Presidential election, drawing particularly on learnings from consumer-focused market research.

Article

This article looks into who millennials really are and how their characteristics, attitudes and behaviours are often misinterpreted and simplified.

Research Paper

This article examines what went wrong with pre-election polls for the 2016 U.S. presidential election and offers solutions to restore credibility to survey methods.

Article

This article explains why opinion polls still remain the reference in public affairs, despite being criticised for inaccuracy.

News

NEW YORK: Elections provide the forum where research and polling get the most exposure, and while flawed 2016 forecasts in the US and UK delivered powerful blows to the credibility of the practice, the main issue seems to be one of "pilot error".

Opinion

As the UK heads to the polls on Thursday, WARC's Alan Saywood explores why pollsters got the 2015 result so wrong, and asks what they must do to put things right and work toward the accuracy that the media and the public demand.

Article

This article explores the historical link between political research and opinion polling and suggests alternatives to the latter, which should however be approached with caution.

Research Paper

This Forum article considers the unsatisfactory results of pre-election opinion polling in the 2015 British general election and the BPC/MRS enquiry report into polling by Sturgis et al., providing a response from Ipsos MORI and associated researchers at King’s College London and Cranfield Universities.

Research Paper

This paper presents a new approach to capturing respondents' emotional drivers of behaviour through research involving free form text, using the example of the 2016 US Presidential election, and listing implications for the Asian market.