SAN JOSE, CA: Online retailers in the US can expect a bonanza this holiday season, with a new study predicting that online sales will reach $107.4bn, up 13.8% since last year.

That is according to the latest estimates from tech firm Adobe, which also expects Cyber Monday on November 27 to generate $6.6bn in sales, making it the “largest online shopping day in history”.

Sales on Thanksgiving Day, which takes place on the preceding Thursday, are also expected to be buoyant at $2.8bn, representing 15% year-on-year growth.

Furthermore, one out of every six dollars this holiday season is expected to be spent between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday – and so including Black Friday – adding up to $19.7bn in sales.

Adobe made its predication after polling more than 1,100 US consumers as well as deploying its Sensei artificial intelligence tool to identify retail insights from trillions of data points that are processed via Adobe Analytics.

On top of the impressive growth online sales are expected to record this year, Adobe also confirmed the steady rise of mobile, which for the first time is forecast to generate more web traffic than desktop.

This year, more than half (54%) of visits to retail websites are expected to come from smartphones and tablets, although mobile’s share of actual online purchases will be lower – at a third (34%) of all online spending.

“While desktop purchases are predicted to account for two-thirds of revenue this holiday season, mobile is serving as a starting point for many consumers,” said the Adobe report.

And mobile is expected to be particularly advantageous for smaller retailers (those with less than $10m in annual revenue) because they will achieve a higher average conversion rate of 1.9% by attracting more shoppers who have an intent to buy.

“We predict the biggest retailers with wide selections, easy shopping experiences and free shipping, to drive online holiday growth this year. Still, there is opportunity for savvy small retailers to win, specifically with mobile experiences,” said Mickey Mericle, Adobe’s VP of Marketing and Insights.

“As revenue growth plateaus, retailers will be competing hard for customers by offering steep discounts and providing a seamless customer journey,” she added.

Sourced from Adobe; additional content by WARC staff