This Year Next Year, the media agency’s half yearly media and marketing forecast, expected that this year will see the best annual increment since a $26bn bounceback in 2010 after the global financial crisis.
Six countries are predicted to provide three quarters of the expected growth and the top two more than half: the US is slated to deliver $6.9bn in new net advertising investment (although adspend is rising at a slower rate than GDP), and China will bring $6.1bn to the table.
While the rate of ad growth in China is slowing, from 6.8% this year towards 5% in 2023, GroupM stressed that the $6bn figure was more than the whole of Europe at $4bn.
Within Europe, the UK leads the way, contributing an expected $1.6bn in growth in 2018 – this, the report noted, “against expectations of Brexit calamity and bouts of consumer fatigue”.
It highlighted “colossal digitization” in the UK and said this would account for 60% of recorded ad investment in 2019.
Japan also features in the top six with a projected $1.3bn growth, followed by India on $1.2bn.
The Philippines is the final billion-dollar contributor, with forecast per-capita ad investment of $60 this year, which is double the regional average although less than the world average of $93.
GroupM added the caveat that the Philippines is undercounted, as digital is still not measured there (while also noting that digital accounts for 20% of ASEAN advertising investment where it is measured).
Sourced from GroupM; additional content by WARC staff