In the Spring update to its annual forecasts, the media intelligence business projected media owners' net advertising sales will grow by 3.7% to $505bn worldwide this year.
While this is a noticeable slowdown compared to 2016, which reached a record +5.9% growth rate, it is not unexpected given the absence of major cyclical events – global sports events or US elections – in 2017.
US growth is expected to drop back even more sharply, from 7.7% in 2016 to 1.6% this year.
Linear television, especially, will suffer from the absence of major sports events, while it is also feeling the effects of a long-term erosion of viewing and ratings in many markets: spending will dip 0.9% on a global scale, to $180bn.
Digital media, meanwhile, will increase 14.1% to pass the $200bn mark. And within that, 54% ($110bn) will come from mobile.
Video and social formats will continue to drive digital advertising growth (+30% or more) while paid search will grow by double digits again (+13%) to remain the No.1 format, accounting for almost half of digital ad sales.
Geographically, the most dynamic markets in 2017 will be China (+7.3%, 0.8 percentage points above previous forecast), Spain (+7.3%, 0.7pp above previous forecast), India (+11.5%, 2pp below previous forecast) and Russia (+9.6%, 0.9pp above previous forecast).
The weakest growth in the top 10 will come from the UK (+1.9%), the U.S., (+1.6%) and France (+0.4%). Only three markets are expected to show ad sales decreases: Singapore, Hong Kong and Croatia.
Data sourced from MAGNA; additional content by WARC staff