Here at Edge, predicting Amazon's next moves is a big part of our job. But the complex and subtle forces applied by competing channels, supply chains, regulations and consumer interests – each of these factors subject to rapid and surprising changes – makes prediction a broad and long-term game.
1. Grocery finally hits
In 2018, grocery sales on Amazon.com grew by about 45% compared to 2017. That's nothing to scoff at, but it is a drop from the 2016-2017 growth rate of nearly 60% and Amazon is still a long way off from where they had hoped grocery sales would be by now.
Of the roughly $3 billion in sales on Amazon.com, nearly half fell under the coffee or cold beverages category and most other sales were for non-perishables like snacks and cereals. Amazon has spent years trying to expand grocery beyond these limited categories and get fresh food off the ground, but with little success. Programs like Prime Pantry and Amazon Fresh have failed to convince shoppers to turn to Amazon for their fruit, vegetables, meat and other perishables.