Here at Edge, predicting Amazon's next moves is a big part of our job. But the complex and subtle forces applied by competing channels, supply chains, regulations and consumer interests – each of these factors subject to rapid and surprising changes – makes prediction a broad and long-term game. So to inform brand manufacturers and other stakeholders, we're not going to limit ourselves to Amazon's short term goals. Instead, we're going to break our predictions out by distance: what's a hand's breadth away, what's 10k feet away and what's 40k feet away.

We've already treated you to our short term and medium term predictions, and now we're going to go out on a limb and make some big prediction about what's waiting for us in the 2020s. These are unlikely to have an imminent impact on brands' bottom lines, but may be worth keeping in mind as distinct possibilities in the coming years.

1. Monetizing the last mile