Predictive markets: is the crowd consistently wise?

John Kearon

Predictive Markets puts forward the challenging assertion is that crowds make better decisions than experts, when they are diverse, independent and faithfully aggregated, meaning a crowd of people operating through a 'Market' mechanism could be just as accurate as our best research approaches.

Predictive markets: is the crowd consistently wise? Two years and seven experiments on from the paper in 2005: re-engineering Research to take advantage of the 'Wisdom of Crowds'

John KearonBrainJuicer Group PLC

INTRODUCTION

The original 2005 'Predictive Markets' paper shared the challenging supposition that a large diverse crowd of people, buying and selling shares in 'ideas' will be at least as accurate as and possibly more discerning than a classic, scientifically sampled research approach. We decided to torture test the supposition on a classic concept test, with some intriguing results.

Predictive Markets, originally from experimental economics and popularised...

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