Predicting the future - principles for forecasting almost anything

Vinay Ahuja and Omar Mahmoud

Market researchers should reapply principles and practices from other domains in order to address the many challenges they face in their own businesses.

Predicting the future – principles for forecasting almost anything

Vinay Ahuja and Omar MahmoudProcter & Gamble International SA, Switzerland

INTRODUCTION

Man is a forecasting animal. Evidence of forecasting has been recorded throughout ancient history. The Egyptians are thought to have foretold their harvests, a large part of what we would call their economy, from the level reached by the Nile during its annual floods. The Oracles of Delphi and Nostradamus are early examples of often-ambiguous forecasters. In the United States a forecasting industry developed in the early years of the 20th century but the Great Depression —...

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