Trendwatch: Can the old forecaster ever be any good?

Looks at the forecasting trade and how the longer a forecaster is in the game, the more likely it is they will be unfairly reproached for being wrong.

The young may be allowed to make poor predictions but the old hand cannot get away with it, says James Murphy.

Imagine the scene. You are pitching for a retainer with a major City institution. Bright and thrusting, the finest talent from your trends agency is on display. Your presentation is a knockout. The promise of quality and creativity is compellingly made. But then, abruptly, the client CEO puts the question that crushes the soul: "Your firm has been in business for a long time. So, looking back, can you list for us which of your forecasts turned out to...

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