Mind-reading a friend: A better way to ask the polling question?

This article reports on differences observed when asking a simple polling question in a traditional way—that is, asking respondents for predictions about their own voting behavior versus asking respondents for predictions about a friend's voting behavior.

Introduction

I wanted to use the 2017 UK general election to test an intuition, that instead of asking people for predictions about their own future behavior, we might be better off asking them to predict the future behavior of a friend. In short, I h that we can be over-confident in our ability to stick to intentions, that we are naturally expert at observing other people, that we often tell little white lies to protect our self-image and that, consequently, we are notoriously poor forecasters. Tetlock and Gardner (2015) show that most people are very poor at forecasting future outcomes, even within their own area of expertise.

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