• Program-audience may not serve as an adequate indicator of commercial viewership.
  • Measurement of advertising effectiveness will be more accurate if researchers are able to collect second-by-second data.
  • Simulations of second-by-second audience numbers can be helpful in measuring advertising audience, assessing advertising strategies, and aiding in future media purchasing and pricing.
  • Together with the prediction of audience program ratings, the proposed method can predict advertisement audience ratings when advertisers have chosen the time period and program type to broadcast their ads.


Television remains the dominant advertising medium, despite the considerable increase in the number and types of media. As of 2016, television advertising accounted for roughly 40 percent of global advertising spending, and it will remain the most significant channel for advertising in the near future (Yeh and Zhang, 2017). Audience ratings of television programs long have been used as an important reference for measuring advertising effectiveness and for placing and pricing advertisements (Yang, Narayan, and Assael, 2006; Yao, Wang, and Chen, 2017). The serious gap between program and commercial audience ratings due to changes in viewing patterns, however, frequently renders such references spurious (Kent, 2002; Swaminathan and Kent, 2013).