Best in brief: Predicting the unpredictable

Companies need to take steps to foresee potential disasters. The `RPM' process is needed: recognition, prioritisation and mobilisation.

Best In Brief

Harvard Business Review: Predicting the unpredictable

Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman

Douglas WestUniversity of Westminster

 

Surprises are by their nature unpredictable, and leaders cannot always be blamed for lack of foresight. However, many damaging events are foreseeable and preventable, and this means more than just better environmental scanning or contingency planning. What is required is the 'RPM' process: recognition, prioritisation and mobilisation.

Problems in recognition occur when leaders remain oblivious to an emerging threat or problem. It can happen to the best executives. For example, Jack Welch was quoted as saying, 'You are...

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