A Calculated Risk

This paper outlines a paradigm for strategic research that goes beyond the normal mode of data interpretation and delivers truly decision-oriented information.

A Calculated Risk: Applying Game Theory to Strategic Multicountry Research

Andy Dexter and Jonathan Fletcher DVL Smith, U.K.

Man is at his most human when he is at play.

Friedrich von Schiller

THE ARGUMENT FOR GAME THEORY

Game theory is a framework of understanding interactions. At its heart is the goal of maximising the chance of a 'player' winning. If we are playing poker, the amateur generally has a feel for what is a 'good' hand, and will bet accordingly. The professional, by contrast, will have a thorough understanding of the real probabilities of winning...

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