Are we getting worse at political polling? Analysis of historical polling errors in elections

This paper is a summary of analysis of an international database of over 30,000 polls from 473 elections between 1936 and 2017, to assess accuracy trends within opinion polling in light of recent criticism.

Introduction

This paper is a summary of analysis conducted of an international database of 31,310 polls from 473 elections and voting events across 40 countries around the world from 1936 through to 2017 compiled by Kantar.

When examined at a global le

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