UK media inflation forecast to rise to 4.3%

New figures indicate that UK media inflation in 2022 will rise, but less than the global average and slightly less than earlier predictions – although TV inflation remains high, online media appears to have slowed the increase.

Why it matters

Reach is getting more expensive. WARC wrote about this at length in August’s Global Ad Trends report, which is a useful primer. Overall media inflation may paint a bleak picture at a time of rising costs, but among the increases it’s also a time for marketers to seek out channels that are comparatively getting cheaper.

The numbers

The headline: the UK’s 2022 media inflation rate of 4.3% is down slightly from earlier predictions of 4.4% and also under the 5.2% global forecast. Much of this is largely caused by the high rate of consumer price inflation (CPI).

The figures come from ECI Media Management’s Media Inflation Report Update:

• UK TV inflation is forecast to be 15% for the year, up from Q1’s forecast of 7.2%.
• By contrast, both online display and video see an inflation rate of 2.4%, down from earlier Q1 predictions.
• The price of out-of-home advertising has grown only slightly at 1.9%.
• Print advertising has actually shrunk by -1.5%.

Rates of inflation are not evenly distributed as economic effects mix with continued behavioural changes – notably younger people’s shift away from linear TV, which makes linear TV reach more expensive.

Around the world: media inflation forecasts

• North America: 6.2%
• EMEA: 5.9%
• LATAM: 5.8%
• APAC: 3.6%

Key quote

Lower UK media inflation is “driven mainly by online inflation which is now forecast to be 2.4%, versus higher predictions at the start of the year. 

“This drop has happened because, while online viewership has remained stable, spend has decreased. The cost-of-living crisis has undoubtedly caused by advertisers decreasing their investment, which is leading to lower prices and lower inflation” – Fredrik Kinge, Global CEO, ECI Media Management.

Sourced from ECI Media Management, WARC