Long-term forecasts hint at milder winter | WARC | The Feed

Long-term forecasts hint at milder winter

Climate change forecasters are predicting that temperatures on the US East Coast and most of Europe are more likely to be above rather than below freezing this winter – should it prove correct, that could have critical implications for business.

Why it matters

We’re in the middle of an energy crisis – yes – but the climate crisis is more pressing than ever. In the short term, however, milder winter temperatures would slightly ease the pressure on people’s heating costs across a continent that is feeling Russia’s weaponisation of energy costs. 

What’s going on

These are the new seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, reported by Bloomberg.

• Temperatures in peak heating season (December to February) are likely to be significantly above average.
• In Europe, there is a 50-60% probability that the UK, Ireland, the Mediterranean, and Central Europe (see image) will see temperatures above their historical average.
• Temperatures across the continental United States are expected to be well above average, though above-average precipitation is also expected across the northern states.

While that’s pretty scary, Bloomberg notes that Copernicus’ forecasts aren’t indicative of all meteorologists’ outlooks, as some are predicting more volatile cold snaps.

What it means

While this would make a difference to consumer’s wallets, it also has big implications for industry: high energy costs threaten factory closures as well as major blackouts. And ultimately it doesn’t matter how digital a brand is if there’s no energy to power networks.

But there’s more to consider, with the long-term environmental outlook not looking good. Ski slopes across Europe and the United States are expected to see less snow, and already dwindling rivers could suffer further from less rain.

It should serve as a reminder that sustainability measures are not a nice-to-have, but an essential adaptation measure as the world continues to be rocked by climate change.

Sourced from Bloomberg, Copernicus