Value-based prediction of election results using natural language processing: A case of the New Zealand General Election

Mathew Parackal, Damien Mather and David Holdsworth

In this article, we report the results of a study that tested a values-based method of predicting political election results.

Background

Election polling is a standard practice in most democracies (Lewis-Beck, 2005). Substantial advancement in the methodology has been made since the 1948 US Presidential Election, in which President Harry Truman retained his office after all pre-election forecasts pronounced his defeat (Rosenberg, 2015). Pollsters' poor management of sample frame deficiencies was blamed for the infamous headline in the Tribune, "Dewey defeats Truman" that went to press before the election results were announced (Jones, 2007).

Most pollsters and the general public refer to the estimates of pre-election polls as forecasts. A close examination of the methodology reveals that they are the...

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