The limits of prediction

Predicting trends is not an exact science and giving up the idea that the future can be planned with certainty is the key to planning.

The limits of prediction

Ian Durbach and Gillian DrewettUniversity of Cape Town and Ipsos Laboratories

Marketing is an unpredictable art, not a science, but uncertainty can be reduced through the frequent gathering of consumer and trend data to model not what will occur, but what might occur.

Hershey's famously placed its Reese's Pieces candy in the 1982 film E.T. The Extra-Terrestrialafter Mars had turned down a similar offer for its M&M's. The result was a huge spike in sales for Reese's Pieces and embarrassment for Mars. Lesson learned: be alert to opportunities in new media....

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