Predictions are notoriously difficult. When the CIA created a report fifteen years ago on what to expect in 2015, most of its estimations were wrong. While the organisation foresaw the growth of the internet, the 2008 financial crisis was not on its radar. So if we can't rely on political estimates, social predictions or even the weather, is there anything we can predict with confidence?
Consider human behaviour
It might seem to be a stretch that we, as humans, are more predictable than the natural world, but aside from irrational exceptions we are generally creatures of habit. Over a sustained...