LONDON: Publicis-owned media planning and buying network ZenithOptimedia has published its latest UK Television Forecasts, peering into the swirling mists of its crystal ball as far ahead as 2012.

It reveals ...

  • The television ad market will stabilise this year and start growing in 2008.

  • Digital conversion will to all intents be complete by 2010 - at least for primary household TV sets.

  • The report provides revenue forecasts for the digital siblings of the five main analogue channels. Digital channels 4 and Five are compensating for declines at their parents, but growth at the three digital ITV channels is insufficient to atone for the decline at ITV1.

  • After adjusting for inflation, TV airtime is at its cheapest since the early 1980s - or in real terms, since 1995.
The agency also predicts that UK TV advertising will cease to shrink this year, and start growing again (at a modest 2%) in 2008. It will expand at between 1%-2% annually over the four years to 2012 - although its market share (27.2% in 2006) will shrink to 22.7% by 2012.

For further information on Zenith's Advertising Expenditure Forecasts series click here.

Data sourced from ZenithOptimedia (UK); additional content by WARC staff