Two forecasters, each noted for getting it right more often than wrong, are agreed about US adspend prospects for the remainder of 2002. London-based Zenith Optimedia and the eponymous Jack Myers Report in New York have both upped by a tad their estimates for the year.
But no-one should break out the champagne. Zenith, a jointly-owned unit of Publicis Groupe and Cordiant Communications, still expects a year-on-year decline, albeit less than the 1.8% it forecast in April. The fall in US adspend, it believes, will now be in the region of 1.2%; and although the economy “shows intermittent strength”, Zenith detects “no sign of real recovery for the United States media industry.”
Zenith then retuned its crystal ball to encompass the globe’s seven largest regional ad markets (including the US) and through the swirls of mist discerned an overall annual decline of just 0.5% – a sizeable improvement on its earlier prophesy of minus 1.8%.
Meantime Jack Myers had reached a similar conclusion – but different numbers – for the US ad market, which he now expects to match last year’s total instead of his previous prediction of a 0.4% decline.
But while the numbers differ, the trends are identical and concur with last week’s US adspend augury by David Peeler of CMR who also adjusted upward to 2.5% his projection for 2002 [WAMN: 27-Jun-02].
Data sourced from: New York Times; additional content by WARC staff