NEW YORK: Advertising expenditure in the US will decline by 15.4% this year, to $162.1 billion (€109.3bn; £102.0bn), before returning to growth of 0.2% in 2010, according to a new forecast by Magna, part of Interpublic Group.
Based on a methodology that assesses the revenues of media suppliers rather than agency billings, Magna predicts that American adspend will register a compound annual growth rate of 1.5% from 2009 to 2014.
When taken to exclude television revenues related to the Olympics and political contests, the decrease moderates to 14.6% this year, although this also means the market will contract by 1.3% next year.
Ad revenues will also diminish by 9% in the final quarter of 2009 on this basis, to $47.5bn, compared with downward movements of 13% in the third quarter and 18% in each of the first two quarters.
This demonstrates that "the first half of 2009 marked the bottom of the ad-supported media economy's decline," Magna said.
Including all spending, national television will see its figures slide by 6.3% this year, to $32bn, and improve by 1.3% in 2010, and by 2.8% each year until 2014.
Similarly, network and satellite radio will record a drop of 10.6% in 2009, and 0.9% in 2010, with a CAGR of 1.6% overall.
National newspapers will plummet by 22.7% this year, to $911.8 million, and a further 3.9% in the proceeding 12 months, with a compound annual growth rate of –1.8% over the timeframe assessed by Magna.
Magazines will be off by 19.2% this year and 6.2% next, to a total of $14.6bn, and sales through this medium will continue to slow over the duration of the forecast.
Outdoor revenues will also tumble by 13.1% in 2009, and remain largely static in 2010, with a CAGR of 3.7% to 2014.
Direct online, encompassing paid search, lead generation and web-based Yellow Pages, will improve by 2.5% and 11.4% this year and next respectively, to $15.4bn, and enjoy double-digit growth going forward.
However, national digital, including rich and online video, internet classifieds, email, digital display and mobile, will be down 9.8% in 2009, to $5.6bn.
This channel will then see budgets climb 1.1% in 2010, and by a total of 5.3% annually in the five years to 2014.
Data sourced from Magna; additional content by Warc staff