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UK Adspend to Soar 33% in Next Decade, Predicts Ad Body

News, 15 November 2004


The end of adspend growth in our time is nigh. Or so predict a plethora of Jonahs whenever there is a downturn in advertising expenditure.

The adspend recession that started in late 2000 was no exception, with forecasters suggesting everything from freefall in TV expenditure due to increasing fragmentation among TV-consuming audiences, to the mass migration of advertising expenditure in general to other forms of promotion.

For some reason the Cassandra tendency appears to believe that advertising is not subject to the same cyclical fluctuations that beset every other industrial and commercial activity.

However, the latest UK Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast from the Advertising Association suggests these alarmist views are unlikely to come to pass; also that the underlying economic forces that drive adspend are likely to continue to be positive for the foreseeable future.

The fortunes of individual media will be shaped both by the underlying growth of advertising expenditure and by the competitive forces that affect spending in different media forms.

For the first time the LTAEF includes direct mail and internet advertising in the forecasting base, making the report the most comprehensive long term forecast to date.

Year

High Option

Low Option

 

Total

Display

Classified

Total

Display

Classified

2004

15,850

11,650

4,200

15,750

11,624

4,127

2014

21,000

15,792

5,208

19,650

15,170

4,480



In the absence of major threats to advertising, real growth is projected to rise by 33% between 2004 and 2014 on the 'High Option'. Even on the 'Low Option', assuming developments such as the continuing growth of the internet and the fragmentation of television audiences have a harmful effect on advertising expenditure, 25% real growth is projected over the same time period.

For further details of the LTAEF click here.

Data sourced from Advertising Association (UK); additional content by WARC staff