LONDON: Newspaper adspend is set to plummet by 21% in the UK next year, with television posting a decline of 10%, and digital media seeing growth slow to 2.1%, reports media and technology research firm Enders Analysis.

According to the company's forecasts, British ad spending will experience a downturn of 12% in 2009, and will not return to growth until 2011. By sector, the expected trends are . . .

  • Newspaper display revenues will shrink by around 22% next year, and classifieds by some 19%.
  • The print sector will post an estimated year-on-year slump of 21% overall, and will not register positive advertising revenue figures until 2013.
  • TV adspend will also slow by 4% in 2010, marking a decline of some 19% on its 2007 figures, before enjoying growth of around 2% in 2011.
  • Outdoor (–7.8%), radio (–5.7%), cinema (–8.8%) and direct mail (–13.8%) are also set to struggle over the course of 2009.
  • Online is likely to grow by 20% this year, but only by 2.1% in 2009, followed by upswings of 9.3% in 2010, 13.3% in 2011, 12.5% in 2012 and 7.4% in 2013.
  • Search advertising is expected to be the main driver of online growth, with display spending rising by 10.2% in 2008, but dropping off by 5.5% in 2009.
The gloomy forecast for next year is based on what Enders Analysis terms the "dramatic downgrading of the state of the UK economy in recent weeks and days, ending talk of a shallow and short recession."

Adds the company's report: "We expect TV advertising revenues to return to growth when economic growth returns, while press, radio and direct mail are likely to remain in decline for the foreseeable future."

Data sourced from Media Guardian (UK); additional content by WARC staff