LONDON: Adspend levels in the UK will fall by 4.3% this year at current prices, with the first upturn, a modest 0.3% rise year-on-year, set for Q2 2010, according to the Advertising Forecast, produced by WARC for the Advertising Association.

Online is the only medium likely to grow throughout this period, at an average of 9% per quarter, while outdoor and transport will be the first form of traditional media to recover, with growth of 4.3% in Q1 2010.

Television, by contrast, is set to see a steady decline in ad revenues, until it finally registers an upturn in the third quarter of 2010.

National newspapers will also be stable by Q3 2010, with colour supplements up by almost 2%, while regional titles and magazines are likely to post declines, albeit at a slower rate that than over the last 18 months.

Direct mail will also show no sign of recovery by the third quarter of next year, with the six months from Q3 this year being particularly challenging.

Based on data from The Nielsen Company, WARC also forecasts that spending through the durables sector (which is dominated by motors) will decline by over 6% in 2009, returning to growth by Q2 2010.

Following a slump of 9% in 2009, the finance sector is also expected to see negligible growth in the second quarter of 2010, before posting an upturn of 4% in the third quarter.

Consumables, the UK's largest advertising sector, shows no sign of recovery in 2010, which is bad news for TV, a traditional mainstay for the category.

Retail is also set to suffer over the next 18 months, with Christmas 2009 looking particularly adverse, as spending is predicted to plummet 8% year-on-year.

To find out more details about the Advertising Forecast, click here.

Data sourced from The Advertising Forecast (WARC)