The latest Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast from the UK Advertising Association indicates a substantial rise in advertising expenditure between now and 2017.

Following a strong performance in 2004, UK advertising expenditure growth slowed this year as the economy cooled. A recovery is expected next year with annual growth rates then steadily increasing - and peaking in 2009.

Compiled by the World Advertising Research Center, the forecast reports that the underlying economic forces that drive adspend are likely to continue to be positive into the foreseeable future. The fortunes of the individual media will be shaped both by the underlying growth of advertising expenditure and by the competitive forces that affect spending in different media forms.

This edition of the report is the most comprehensive forecast of the UK advertising industry ever produced by the AA, with sectoral advertising data now directly comparable with its quarterly Advertising Forecast report.

Although the fortunes of individual media sectors will be mixed over the next decade, the general pattern for the industry is one of growth, despite the perceived threats to advertising.

Table: High and Low Twelve Year Forecast Options
(£m at constant 2000 prices)

Year High Option Low Option
  Total Display Classified Total Display Classified
2005 16,084 11,990 4,093 15,932 11,893 4,040
2017 22,998 17,885 5,113 21,781 17,367 4,414

Note: Media covered by the report include television, national newspapers, regional newspapers, consumer magazines, business magazines, directories, radio, outdoor & transport, cinema, the internet and direct mail.

In the absence of major threats to advertising, real growth is projected to rise by 43% between 2005 and 2015 on the 'High Option'. Even on the 'Low Option' 37% real growth is projected over the same time period.

For more information on the AA's 2005-2017 forecasts click here.

Data sourced from Advertising Association (UK); additional content by WARC staff