The Advertising Association, an umbrella organization for twenty-five trade bodies across the spectrum of Britain's advertising and promotional marketing industry, on Monday issued its latest Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast.

Taking a ten-year view, the report argues that it is vital to maintain a sense of perspective in the current advertising climate when considering long-term trends. It emphasizes the importance of producing a long-term projection that helps to distinguish short-term cyclical blips from significant and relatively permanent changes in the factors governing UK advertising growth.

Despite the setbacks of the past two years when many sectors of UK advertising suffered considerable revenue losses, often following a long period of growth, the report emphasizes that advertising expenditure has recovered from all previous post war recessions. The AA remains optimistic that the current situation will be no different.

The report analyses the most obvious long-term threats to advertising with particular reference to the differing effects they might have on various media. It concludes there is a good chance of significant growth in media advertising expenditure over the next decade, as indicated in the data below (£ million at constant 1995 prices; direct mail and internet expenditure excluded):

2003 High Option
Total 11,000
Display 7,513
Classified 3,487

2013 High Option
Total 15,650
Display 10,845
Classified 4,805

2003 Low Option
Total 10,800
Display 7,398
Classified 3,402

2013 Low Option
Total 12,950
Display 9,195
Classified 3,756

In the absence of major threats to advertising, real growth is projected to rise by 47% between 2002 and 2015 on the ‘High Option’. Even on the ‘Low Option’, assuming developments such as the internet and a generally depressed stock market have a harmful effect on adspend, 16% real growth is projected.

The report is available at a reduced price for AA members by clicking here.

Data sourced from: Advertising Association (UK); additional content by WARC staff