NEW YORK: The absence this year of major political campaigns or sporting events does not bode well for US advertising expenditure, according to TNS Media Intelligence. The researcher is forecasting a modest rise of 2.6% - significantly less than the 3.8% increase it believes was notched in 2006.

The TNS crystal ball predicts total adspend for 2007 will climb to $157.3 billion (€117.9bn; £79.1bn) and, opines president/ceo Steven Fredericks, this less-than-spectacular increase is the result of media fragmentation dampening price inflation.

He adds: "At the same time we're seeing improved effectiveness in terms of what advertisers believe they're getting out of it. It's allowing large spenders to trim their spending by shifting expenditures into new media, which costs less."

And it is value-for-money new media which, TNS predicts, will fare best this year. It is forecasting a 13.4% increase in web adspend, giving the internet a 7.2% share of the total - up from 6.5% in 2006.

Syndicated television is also expected to do well in 2007 with 6.6% growth in adpsend, while outdoor advertising can look forward to 2.6% expansion.

But where there are winners, there are losers and TNS believes network TV will fall into this category, growing just 0.6% and losing share of 0.3% to finish at 15.2%.

Newspapers also face a gloomy year, according to the researcher. Excluding advertising on their websites, they are expected to slip 0.9% from 2006, and will see their share of the market fall from 18.4% to 17.7%.

Spot TV is forecast to fall 2.8% this year, which would reduce its slice of the adspend pie from 11.6% to 10.9%.

Data sourced from; additional content by WARC staff