America’s Television Bureau of Advertising is forecasting a surge in the TV ad market next year.

Late last week, the group issued predictions for 2004 and 2005, based on independent research as well as the views of financial analysts and firms representing television stations.

The TBA believes overall spot revenues for next year will jump 10%–11% on the back of the Olympics and the US presidential election, compared with 2003. This increase will comprise a 7%–8% rise in local spend and a 14%–15% leap in national outlay.

The Bureau’s forecasts for 2005 are more conservative but still show steady growth. It is forecasting 2%–4% expansion in overall spot revenues, comprising a 3%–5% rise in local and a hike of up to 2% in national.

Even such modest growth will outperform 2003. The Bureau estimates that total spot growth this year will be just 1%, at the low end of the 1%–3% range it previously predicted.

Data sourced from: MediaWeek (US); additional content by WARC staff