GLOBAL: The US will be the single biggest contributor of new advertising dollars between now and 2019 but "Rising Markets" will account for more than half according to a new study.
The latest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts report from media agency Zenith predicted that, between 2016 and 2019, global advertising expenditure will increase by US$69bn, with the US accounting for 28% of this total extra spending; China will contribute 22%, with a long gap to third placed Indonesia on 5%.
Six of the ten largest contributors, the report said, will be the Rising Markets – defined as all those outside the mature markets of North America, Western Europe and Japan – of China, Indonesia, India, the Philippines, Russia and Mexico.
These six are projected to contribute 38% of new adspend over the next three years, while the Rising Markets group taken together will supply 56% of additional ad expenditure during that time. Their share of the global market will also rise from 37% to 39%.
Globally, Zenith expected that growth in ad expenditure will fall behind that of the wider economy over the next three years, with the Middle East & North Africa being the hardest hit region, with ad spending falling 8.9% over the period.
Growth in Western & Central Europe, meanwhile, has been affected by the impact of events in the UK.
"A slowing economy, gathering inflation, and political uncertainty over the mid-year elections and upcoming Brexit negotiations have all contributed to a sharp drop in adspend growth in the UK in 2017,the report said.
Spending in the region's largest advertising country, the fourth largest globally, is set to slump from growth of 9.6% in 2016 to just 0.9% in 2017, dragging down growth in Western & Central Europe from 4.5% in 2016 to 2.2% in 2017, and an annual average of 2.6% to 2019.
Ad markets in Eastern European & Central Asia, however, are set to grow fastest at an average of 9.2% every year to 2019, with Fast-Track Asia – where China represents 73% of spending – starting to slow from an earlier frenetic pace (10.8% annual growth between 2011 and 2016) to a more sedate 7.5% a year.
North America should start outperforming Western & Central Europe again in 2017, growing at average of 3.3% growth a year to 2019.
Data sourced from Zenith; additional content by WARC staff