GLOBAL: In 2017, the majority of digital advertising sales will be generated by impressions and clicks on mobile devices, according to the latest advertising forecasts from MAGNA Global.
In the Spring update to its annual forecasts, the media intelligence business projected media owners' net advertising sales will grow by 3.7% to $505bn worldwide this year.
While this is a noticeable slowdown compared to 2016, which reached a record +5.9% growth rate, it is not unexpected given the absence of major cyclical events – global sports events or US elections – in 2017.
US growth is expected to drop back even more sharply, from 7.7% in 2016 to 1.6% this year.
Linear television, especially, will suffer from the absence of major sports events, while it is also feeling the effects of a long-term erosion of viewing and ratings in many markets: spending will dip 0.9% on a global scale, to $180bn.
Digital media, meanwhile, will increase 14.1% to pass the $200bn mark. And within that, 54% ($110bn) will come from mobile.
Video and social formats will continue to drive digital advertising growth (+30% or more) while paid search will grow by double digits again (+13%) to remain the No.1 format, accounting for almost half of digital ad sales.
Geographically, the most dynamic markets in 2017 will be China (+7.3%, 0.8 percentage points above previous forecast), Spain (+7.3%, 0.7pp above previous forecast), India (+11.5%, 2pp below previous forecast) and Russia (+9.6%, 0.9pp above previous forecast).
The weakest growth in the top 10 will come from the UK (+1.9%), the U.S., (+1.6%) and France (+0.4%). Only three markets are expected to show ad sales decreases: Singapore, Hong Kong and Croatia.
Data sourced from MAGNA; additional content by WARC staff