LONDON: Advertising costs will rise sharply in China, India and Russia over the next year while remaining broadly static or falling in developed countries according to Warc's latest Media Inflation Forecast.
The study covers eleven key markets – Australia, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, the UK and the US – and is based on a poll of four global media agencies regarding whether media prices, in terms of the cost of reaching 1,000 adults, are likely to rise or fall. (Warc subscribers can view detailed figures here.)
Media inflation is projected to be highest in China, where double-digit increases are expected across all media in both 2013 and 2014. In particular, the cost of a typical 30-second television spot is believed to have risen 19% this year and is set to increase by a further 17% in 2014.
Higher TV rates are also predicted for Russia and India. But while Russian growth will be steady, at 10% in 2013 and 9% in 2014, India is more volatile, with 8% growth in 2013 followed by 18% in 2014.
The situation in India has been complicated by the regulator there limiting television advertising to 12 minutes per hour, a decision which is currently the subject of a legal challenge by a group of news channels.
Across the other eight countries considered, television advertising costs in 2013 are expected to have fallen 5% in Italy, with the US and UK also in negative territory on -1%. Australia is flat, while the remainder range from 1% to 3%. By 2014, all will be growing modestly.
A similar pattern is evident for online banner ads of 468 x 60 pixels, where the cost per thousand is predicted to have increased by 15% in 2013 in both China and Russia, and by 11% in India. But costs have declined in Australia (-4%), France (-3%) and Spain (-1%), with the remaining countries registering figures of between 0% and 3%,
This picture for online is expected to be repeated in 2014, when costs in Russia (+15%) will grow slightly faster than China and India (both on +11%). But Australia will see a further decline (-5%) while the US and France (both on -1%) will also creep into negative territory. Again, the rest will see weak growth of between 1% and 5%.
China is also the only market where print media costs are expected to rise significantly, at between 10% and 12% over this year and next.
Data sourced from Warc, Livemint