LONDON: Advertising costs are expected to rise significantly in China, India and Russia over the next year, with outdoor seeing some of the greatest increases according to Warc's latest Media Inflation Forecast.
The study covers eleven key markets – Australia, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, the UK and the US – and is based on a poll of four global media agencies regarding whether media prices, in terms of the cost of reaching 1,000 adults, are likely to rise or fall. (Warc subscribers can view detailed figures here.)
Television costs are rising fastest in China and India, where the prices of a 30-second spot increased by 16% and 15% respectively in 2014, and will continue to move sharply upwards in 2015, at 15% and 14%.
For the rest, TV inflation in 2014 is running at between 0% (Italy) and 8% (UK) and that spread will narrow slightly in 2015 to between 2% (Japan) and 8% (Russia).
Outdoor costs are shooting up in Russia, with a 23% increase in 2014 followed by an 18% rise in 2015. Other emerging markets are following a similar if slightly less dramatic pattern: the price of a standard billboard in 2014 rose 15% in China and 16% in India, figures which are projected to be repeated in 2015.
These rates of increase stand in stark contrast to the situation in developed countries where the US reported the biggest rise in 2014, and that was just 2%; in Spain the cost actually fell by -1%. In 2015, however, the spread will become greater, from 0% in Japan to 5% in the US.
A similar gulf is evident in the media inflation figures for standard 468 by 60 internet display ads. Costs per thousand are falling or growing only slowly in the more developed countries, from -2% in Australia in 2014 to 3% in Spain, and a forecast -3% in Australia in 2015 to 4% in Spain.
The greatest increases are once again coming in China and India, up 13% and 10% respectively in 2014 and expected to rise 12% and 10% in 2015. Russia stands somewhere in the middle with figures of 7% for 2014 and 6% for 2015.
Print inflation is most pronounced in China, where figures of 14% for newspapers and 10% for magazines in 2014 will be followed by 11% and 9% respectively in 2015. No other market is expected to see double digit inflation in either year, with newspaper costs falling in the US and several European countries.
Data sourced from Warc