GLOBAL: Global advertising expenditure will grow 4.0% in 2015 according to the latest forecasts from Carat, fuelled by increased spending on mobile and online video, and with India and Latin America among the fastest growing regions.
The media network's new figure – based on data received from 59 markets across the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA – is a decline on an earlier prediction it made in March when it anticipated growth of 4.6% for the year. It has also revised downwards its prediction for 2016, from 5.0% to 4.7%; this will still represent an additional US$25bn in spend.
Mobile and online video are the primary drivers of increased spending, with digital the only channel expected to see double digital growth, at +15.7% in 2015 and +14.3% in 2016. Overall, digital media will account for 24.3% of global adspend in 2015, rising to 26.5% in 2016.
Specifically, mobile is set to increase +51.2% this year, with online video advancing 22%.
Carat also noted that for ten of the markets analysed – including the UK, Ireland, Canada and Australia – digital is now the principle media used (based on spend), with the US market predicted to join this list in 2018 when digital advertising spend is forecast to overtake TV advertising by more than US$4bn.
TV remains resilient, however, with a steady 42.0% market share in 2015 and is predicted to grow by more than +3% in 2016, as next year's Olympic Games and US elections are expected to drive considerable viewership.
From a regional perspective, Latin America (+12.7%) and India (+11.0%) are the markets where adspend is growing fastest in 2015. They will also top the growth table next year, with Latin America (+13.6%) getting a boost from the Olympics, while India (+12.0%) will continue to perform strongly.
Western Europe is growing at a slower-than-average pace (+2.6% in 2015, +2.9% in 2016) while Central and Eastern Europe, currently shrinking by 6.0%, is set to return to positive growth (+1.6%) next year. North America and Asia-Pacific are close to the average.
Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, Carat's parent company, described the forecast as "optimism balanced with realism" as he observed an increasingly complex and volatile landscape as regards the economies of major markets.
"Digital media continues to achieve outstanding growth as the effectiveness of this medium and results achieved, especially with millennials, warrants the upsurge in spend levels," he added.
Carat's expectations tally well with Warc's own International Ad Forecast, released last month.
Data sourced from Carat; additional content by Warc staff