LONDON/WASHINGTON: Global adspend is expected to fall by 8.4% this year, based on a weighted average of recent predictions made by ad agencies, media companies and industry associations provided in Warc's latest Consensus Forecast.

This prediction marks a downward revision on the previous estimate of a 5.9% decline made in April, and is based on aggregated data collected over the last four months, and which is provided on the condition of anonymity, preventing further information from being released.

Of the 13 countries covered, China leads the way, with anticipated growth of 6.8% – only marginally below the 7% forecast last time.

The outlook for India, although still fairly bright, has taken a more pronounced downturn, from an uptick of 8.4% to one of 6.4%.

Brazil is the only other country due to see an advance in spending, up by 3.0% in all.
Having previously forecast 7% to 8% reductions for the UK and US respectively, these two nations are now expected to deliver drops of 13% and 14% in turn.

Spain's ad market has suffered more than any other in Europe, and could register a decrease of 20% overall. The outlook for the other nations featured is for moderate losses of up to –2%. 

Warc's Consensus Forecast also contains predictions for the major media spending in each of the markets assessed. For more information, and to see the PowerPoint charts that accompany this research, please email

Data sourced from Warc