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Global adspend growth to slow in 2017

News, 03 November 2016

LONDON: Global advertising expenditure will rise 4.5% over all of 2016, but then its growth rate is expected to dip to 4.2% in 2017, according to the latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc.

All 13 markets covered in the report are forecast to see adspend increases both this year and next, but growth is expected to soften in eight of them, including China and the US, the world's largest ad market.

The presidential election campaign and the Summer Olympics in Brazil boosted the US ad market this year, but growth is expected to cool next year when the impact of these events dissipates.

Meanwhile, the outlook for UK advertising revenues looks positive despite ongoing uncertainty about the implications of Brexit, the process that the UK will formally trigger in early 2017 to begin its negotiated departure from the European Union.

Adspend in the UK is expected to record growth of 5.6% this year before falling to 4.3% in 2017, although both projections for the UK remain above the global average.

Warc's Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average across 13 countries of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc's own team and other industry bodies.

According to the analysis, India is expected to see the strongest annual rise in adspend this year and next, growing 13.3% and 13.4% respectively.

The three other BRIC markets are also expected to post adspend growth, with the Chinese market growing 7.1% in 2017, followed by Russia (6.1%) and Brazil (2.1%).

"The latest consensus results present a positive outlook for advertising investment at both a global and local level," said James McDonald, Senior Research Analyst at Warc.

"All 13 markets studied are expected to record adspend growth in the short term, and this despite their contrasting socio-economic environments," he added.

With the exception of newspapers and magazines, all major media channels are expected to record adspend growth this year and into 2017, with mobile seeing the strongest growth of 47.1% this year and 34.2% in 2017. Indeed, Warc predicts mobile will become the third-largest ad channel by the end of this year.

TV and internet are also channels that are expected to see growth rates ease next year, with internet (including mobile) adspend growth projected to dip from 14.6% this year to 13% in 2017. TV is forecast to see 2.8% growth this year before falling to 1.1%.

"We have identified a common trend among more mature markets whereby increasing investment in internet – particularly mobile – ad formats is driving headline growth," McDonald continued.

"Applying consensus trends to Warc's adspend data shows that mobile will grow to be the world's third-largest ad channel by the end of 2016."

Data sourced from Warc