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Global adspend growth to double in 2016

News, 21 December 2015

LONDON: Global adspend is expected to increase by 4.4% in 2016, according to Warc's latest International Ad Forecast, which notes positive upgrades in seven of the 12 major markets covered in the study.

This projection is double the estimated 2.2% increase in global adspend seen in 2015 and equates to US$414bn at current prices.

After adjustment for inflation, the worldwide total is US$325bn in real teams, or US$8bn below the peak that preceded the global economic crisis.

China and the US are the two largest advertising markets in the world and both are expected to post robust adspend growth of 6.9% and 4.9% respectively next year.

However, even though the US market should get a boost from the twin stimuli of the Summer Olympics and the presidential election, its growth rate is forecast to remain static at 0.0 percentage points compared to Warc's previous report in July.

Growth is expected to dip slightly in the UK (-0.3pp to 5.7%), Canada (-0.3pp to 2.0%) and China (-0.2pp to 6.9%), but will fall the most in Brazil (-2.3pp to 5.4%).

Although the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro will aid advertising in Brazil, its growth rate has been cut because the country faces its longest recession since the 1930s.

Turning to channels, internet adspend will continue to experience rapid growth across all key markets, rising 17.4% in 2015 and 12.2% in 2016, and is forecast to become the largest medium for advertising next year.

By contrast, adspend on TV is estimated to have fallen by 2.5% this year, although these losses should be offset by a forecast rise of 2.9% in 2016.

Other traditional channels are expected to see year-on-year growth in 2016 – cinema (2.2%), OOH (2.3%) and radio (0.3%) – but falls are forecast for magazines (-7.7%) and newspapers (-6.5%).

"The stimuli of major sporting and political events underpin our 4.4% growth forecast for global adspend next year," said James McDonald, data analyst at Warc. "Digital growth is expected to remain in the double-digits, and ad tech is evolving rapidly."

He continued: "Programmatic trading is becoming commonplace, galvanising spend on so-called traditional media, such as outdoor, radio and indeed TV.

"More is being spent to engage with the 'always on' consumer, and this has led to internet becoming the largest ad medium across our 12 major markets."

Data sourced from Warc