NEW YORK: Mediabrands, Interpublic Group's media unit, predicts that global adspend could fall by between 10% and 15% in 2009, with the US possibly seeing a drop of 20% for the year as a whole.
Three months ago, it predicted worldwide adspend would decline by 0.3% in 2009 – in line with the Consensus Forecast produced by WARC – and US ad revenues by 4.5%, and the revision shows how difficult forecasting is in the current climate.
Nick Brien, Mediabrands' ceo, says advertising expenditure will "hit a bottom by the middle of 2009," and is unlikely to return to meaningful growth until mid-2010 at the earliest.
The company also found that consumers are most likely to cut back on cable television and landline phone services in the downturn, but to retain their online and mobile packages.
As such, Brien says advertisers planning to reduce their spending levels should focus more on the web and mobile, and transfer budgets away from mediums like TV and newspapers.
He argues the "far-reaching" consequences of the current downturn could mean advertising will not be "going back to its traditional mix anytime soon."
Another revised US adspend forecast, from Jack Myers, also estimates that American adspend will fall by 12.1% in 2009, and by 5.1% in 2010.
By contrast, a survey of 300 companies by the Korea Broadcast Advertising Corporation found that South Korea's ad market is likely to return to growth in April, with its index total rising by 13 points on the 100 points which would mark static growth.
Data sourced from Marketing Charts/Korea Herald; additional content by WARC staff