After three successive years of decline, advertising expenditure in the UK is set to rise by 3.2% this year, according to the Advertising Association.

In its quarterly Advertising Forecast, researched and compiled by the World Advertising Research Center, the AA examines the UK media spectrum to include national and regional newspapers, consumer and business magazines, television, radio and outdoor.

The latter will lead the field, predicts the trade body, with an inflation-adjusted increase of 7.0%; while radio lags only a hairsbreadth behind at +6.1%.

In the final quarter of 2003 total advertising expenditure, which had been in decline since the beginning of the year, started to recover. For the fourth quarter itself there was a real increase in total expenditure of 0.9% year-on-year and the AA anticipates that this recovery will gather strength during 2004.

Internet advertising is expected to be the single fastest growing medium overall, but will not formally be covered by the Advertising Forecast until the next quarter.

All media sectors are expected to show real growth, as indicated in the sector overview below. The percentages indicate the predicted year-on-year increases [1]:

National newspapers [2] 2.9%
Regional newspapers 3.8%
Consumer magazines [3] 3.8%
Business magazines 1.5%
Total press 3.2%
    (of which display) 3.5%
    (of which classified) 2.7%
Television 2.2%
Radio 6.1%
Outdoor 7.0%
Total measured advertising expenditure [4] 3.2%.

[1] Constant price figures are inflation-adjusted using the retail price index.
[2] Includes supplements.
[3] Excludes supplements.
[4] Excludes cinema, directory, internet and direct mail.

The full Advertising Forecast, published quarterly, is available on annual subscription (£550 for AA members; £875 for non-members). For further information click here.

Data sourced from: Advertising Association (UK); additional content by WARC staff